Turkiye’nin Ihracati Icin Alternatif Dis Talep Gostergeleri

Ugur Ciplak (), Okan Eren, Ferya Ogunc and Mesut Saygili ()

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Turkiye’de ihracat dinamiklerini aciklamak icin yapilan calismalarda, genelde dis talep gostergesi olarak, OECD ve AB ulkeleri gibi genel tanimli ulke gruplarina iliskin makroekonomik buyuklukler kullanilmaktadir. Ancak tanim geregi bu gostergeler, ulkelerin ihracat icindeki paylarini ve son yillarda Turkiye’nin ulke ticaret kompozisyonundaki degisimi dikkate almamaktadir. Bu calismanin amaci, Turkiye’nin mal ve hizmet ihracati yogunluguna gore potansiyel dis talep gelismelerini yansitan alternatif gostergeler olusturmaktir. Hesaplanan gostergeler, 2000-2008 doneminde, OECD ve Euro Bolgesi iktisadi faaliyetinin ima ettigine gore daha hizli bir dis talep artisina isaret etmektedir. [EN] The studies on export dynamics in Turkey usually relies on macroeconomic aggregates of broadly defined country groups, such as OECD and EU countries, as a foreign demand indicator. However, by construction, these measures disregards the country shares in Turkish exports as well as the changes in foreign trade decomposition that Turkey experienced in recent years. Utilizing the intensity of Turkish goods and service exports, this study aims at constructing alternative indicators that may serve as a proxy for potential foreign demand. The indicators calculated in this study point to a faster external demand growth during 2000-2008 period than implied by the OECD and Euro area economic activity growth.

Date: 2011
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