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Belirsizligin Iktisadi Faaliyet Uzerindeki Etkileri

Yavuz Arslan (), Aslihan Atabek Demi̇rhan (), Timur Hulagu and Saygin Sahinoz
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Saygin Cevik ()

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Bu notta belirsizlik ile iktisadi faaliyet arasindaki iliski Iktisadi Yonelim Anketi (IYA) verileri kullanilarak incelenmektedir. Firmalarin uretim hacmi gerceklesmesi sorusuna verdikleri yanitlar, ayni doneme iliskin beklenti sorusuna verdikleri cevaplarla karsilastirilmis ve gozlenen beklenti hatalarindan uc farkli belirsizlik olcutu olusturulmustur. Sonuclara gore belirsizligin iktisadi faaliyetle ters yonlu iliskili oldugu gorulmektedir. [EN] This note investigates the relationship between uncertainty and economic activity by using the Business Tendency Survey (BTS) data. Comparing firms’ survey responses about expectations and realizations on their production volume, three different uncertainty measures regarding expectation errors are constructed. Results suggest that the relationship between uncertainty and economic activity is countercyclical.

Date: 2011
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