Enflasyon Ana Egiliminin Temel Bilesenler Analiziyle Incelenmesi

Orhun Sevinc

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Calismada temel bilesenler analizi kullanilarak turetilen ve hizmet ile temel mal gruplari icin enflasyonist baski ve ikincil yayilim etkilerini temsil eden iki yeni gosterge tanitilmaktadir. Enflasyonist baski gostergesi, enflasyon orani ile yayilim endeksindeki ortak hareketin gucunu ifade ederken, ikincil yayilim etkileri bu ortak hareketten yalitildiginda yayilim endeksinde enflasyona kiyasla gozlenen ayrismaya iliskin bir olcu sunmaktadir. Turetilen birinci gosterge, 2011 yilinda doviz kuru gelismelerinin etkisiyle temel mal grubunda enflasyonist baski seviyesinin onemli oranda yukseldigi, buna karsin hizmet grubunda baskinin oldukca dusuk seviyelerde kaldigini dogrulamaktadir. Ikinci gosterge ise temel mal grubunda doviz kurundan kaynaklanan goreli fiyat hareketlerinin ikincil etkilerinin sinirli kaldigina isaret etmektedir. [EN] This study introduces two new core inflation indicators reflecting inflationary pressure and secondary diffusion effects, which are derived by means of principal component analysis. Inflationary pressure indicator shows the common movement of inflation rate and diffusion index, while secondary diffusion provides an indicator of dispersion of diffusion index relative to inflation once isolated from the common movement. The first indicator confirms that inflationary pressure in core goods rose significantly due to exchange rate developments in 2011, whereas pressure in services group remained at very low levels. In addition, the second indicator implies that second round effects stemming from relative price movements driven by exchange rates on core goods remain limited.

Date: 2012
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