Bolgesel Ihracat Miktar Endeksleri

Altan Aldan and Olcay Çulha

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Bolgelere yapilan ihracatin sektorel yapisi, gerek bolgeler arasinda gerekse ayni bolge icinde zaman icinde ciddi degisiklikler gostermektedir. Ayrica, sektorel ihracat fiyatlarinin hareketleri, genel ihracat fiyatlarindaki hareketlerden farklilasabilmektedir. Dolayisiyla, bu notta sektorel fiyat hareketlerindeki ve bolgeler arasinda ihracatin sektorel kompozisyonundaki farkliliklar dikkate alinarak bolgesel reel ihracat verileri hesaplanmistir. Sektorel kompozisyon ve fiyat farkliliklari dikkate alinmadiginda Avrupa Birligi ulkelerine yapilan reel ihracatin daha dusuk, belli donemlerde AB disindaki Avrupa ve Orta Dogu ulkelerine yapilan ihracatin daha dalgali olarak degerlendirilebildigi gorulmustur. Avrupa Birligi ulkelerine yapilan ihracatin 2011 yilinin sonlarindaki finansal krizden cok fazla etkilenmedigi, son donemlerdeki politik istikrarsizliga karsin, Orta Dogu ulkelerine yapilan ihracatin artis egilimine devam ettigi tespit edilmistir. Kuzey Afrika ulkelerinde yasanan politik gelismeler ozellikle 2011 yilinda reel ihracati olumsuz etkilerken, son donemde bolgeye yapilan ihracatin cok hizli bir sekilde toparlandigi gorulmustur. 2012 yilinin ilk aylarina iliskin egilim analizleri, Avrupa Birligi ve Diger Asya ulkelerindeki zayif seyrin ihracattaki olumsuz etkisinin, Kuzey Afrika ve Kuzey Amerika basta olmak uzere diger bolgelere yapilan ihracattaki artisla buyuk olcude telafi edildigini gostermektedir. [EN] Sectoral composition of exports to regions might be quite different between regions and within regions over time. In addition, developments in export prices in different sectors can be quite different than total export prices. Hence, in this note regional real exports are calculated considering the differences in sectoral export prices and sectoral composition of exports to different regions. When sectoral composition and price differences are not taken into account, real export to European Union countries appears to be less and in some periods, export to non-EU European countries and to Middle East seem to be more volatile. It is found in this study that, export to European Union countries was not largely affected from the financial crisis at the end of 2011 and export to Middle East countries kept its increasing trend in spite of the recent political instability. It is observed that political developments in the North African countries have negatively affected real export especially in 2011, while export to this region has recovered very rapidly in the recent period. Tendency analyses regarding the first months of 2012 reveal that the negative repercussions of weak economic performance in European Union and other Asian countries on exports have been largely compensated by the increase in exports to other regions, especially to North Africa and North America.

Date: 2012
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