Belirsizlik Altinda Yatirim Planlari

Yavuz Arslan, Aslihan Atabek Demi̇rhan (aslihan.atabek@tcmb.gov.tr), Timur Hulagu and Saygin Sahinoz
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Saygin Cevik

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Bu notta belirsizlik ile firmalarin yatirim beklentileri arasindaki iliski Iktisadi Yonelim Anketi (IYA) verileri kullanilarak incelenmektedir. Firmalarin yatirim kararlarini verirken icinde bulundugu belirsizlik, IYA’ya verdikleri cevaplardan elde edilen uretim hacmi beklenti hatalarinin bir fonksiyonu olarak olculmustur. Ayrica, firmalara ozgu belirsizlikler toplulastirilarak makro belirsizlik olcutu olusturulmus ve her iki olcutun etkileri arz ve talep kosullarinin kontrol edildigi bir panel sirali probit modeli kullanilarak test edilmistir. Sonuclara gore, olumlu arz ve talep kosullari altinda, firmaya ozgu belirsizlik 4 standart sapma arttiginda (veri setinde yuzde 8 ihtimalle karsilasilan), firmanin yatirimlarini artirma olasiligi yuzde 38’den 22’ye duserken yatirimlari azaltma olasiligi yuzde 13’ten 25’e artmaktadir. Benzer sekilde, diger faktorler sabit iken, makroekonomik belirsizlik ayni olcude arttiginda (bes ay gecikme ile) firma yatirimlarini artirma olasiligi yuzde 38’den 13’e dusmekte, yatirimlarini azaltma olasiligi yuzde 13’ten 38’e cikmaktadir. [EN] This note analyzes the relationship between uncertainty and firm investment by using the Business Tendency Survey (BTS) data. Idiosyncratic uncertainty faced by firms during their investment decisions is measured as a function of their expectation errors regarding own future production volume. In addition, a macro uncertainty measure is also constructed by aggregating idiosyncratic uncertainties. By using a panel ordered probit model, effects of both measures are tested. Our results reveal that, under positive demand and supply conditions, while a 4 standard deviation increase (observed 8 percent of the time in our dataset) in firm specific uncertainty causes a decline in the probability of increasing its investments from 38 to 22 percent, it increases the probability of decreasing its investments from 13 to 25 percent. Similarly, if the macro uncertainty measure increases the same amount (keeping the other things constant), the probability of increasing investment decisions decline from 38 to 13 percent and the probability of decreasing investment increases from 13 to 38 percent.

Date: 2012
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