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Mevsimlik Urunler ve Fiyat Oynakligi: Guclu Mevsimsellik ve Ongorulemeyen Oynaklik

Oguz Atuk (), Utku Ozmen () and Orhun Sevinc ()

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Fiyat endeksleri kapsaminda yilin sadece belirli donemlerinde temin edilebilen urunler guclu mevsimsellik gosteren urunler olarak adlandirilmaktadir. Bu notta, cesitli urun gruplarinin yillik TUFE enflasyonuna yaptigi katkilar incelenerek guclu mevsimselligin ongorulemez fiyat oynakligi olusturmasinin sektorel yapiyla yakindan iliskili oldugu saptanmistir. Ayrica taze meyve ve sebze fiyatlarindaki guclu mevsimsellikten kaynaklanan TUFE oynakliginin, diger urun gruplarindan farkli olarak, aylik bazda da cok yuksek bir belirsizlik icerdigi gosterilmistir. Bu farkliligin enflasyon olcumunde yontemsel olarak dikkate alinmayisinin yasam maliyetinin olcumune ve enflasyon hedeflemesi cercevesinde para politikasina etkileri tartisilmistir. [EN] Strong seasonality is a special case of seasonality which is characterized by the unavailability of products in every period of the year in the market. In this note, contributions to annual CPI inflation of selected product groups are analyzed. Results suggest that strong seasonality driven unpredictable volatility is closely linked to the structure of the sectors. Moreover, strong seasonality induced CPI volatility from fresh fruits and vegetables are shown to exhibit great uncertainty in monthly terms as well, compared to other product groups. Effects of ignoring this condition in CPI calculation on the cost of living measurement and the monetary policy under inflation targeting framework are discussed.

Date: 2012
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