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A Production Function Method of Estimating the Output Gap

Murat Üngör

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Bu calisma, basit bir uretim fonksiyonunu temel alarak Turkiye icin bir cikti acigi gostergesi hesaplamaktadir. 2005-2008 doneminde cikti aciginda pozitif duzey olusmus ve 2007 : Q4 donemi tepe noktasi olarak gozlenmistir. 2009 yilinda ise son kuresel krizin etkisiyle uretim duzeyi, potansiyel duzeyinin altinda yer almis ve cikti acigi 2009 : Q1 doneminde dip noktasina ulasmistir. Bu calismada ortaya konulan cikti acigi hesaplamalari, yeni Keynesyen bir model ve Bayesci yontem kullanilarak Turkiye’de cikti aciginin hesaplandigi, Alp, Ogunc ve Sarikaya (2012) calismasinin bulgulari ile karsilastirilmistir. Niceliksel olarak bazi farkliliklar gozlenmekle beraber; iki calismada da niteliksel olarak benzer cikti acigi bulgulari ortaya konmaktadir. [EN] This note estimates an output gap measure for Turkey using a production function approach relying on a simplistic representation of the production technology. There is a large positive swing in the output gap during 2005–2008 and output gap reached its peak in 2007 : Q4. Output level fell below its potential dramatically as a result of the global economic crisis in 2009 hitting a trough in 2009 : Q1 and negative output gap as a percentage difference from the potential output was around 12 percent. Output gap estimates in this note and the ones obtained in Alp, Ogunc, and Sarikaya (2012), using Bayesian estimation of a New Keynesian model, exhibit a similar pattern qualitatively, whereas there are some differences in quantitative terms.

Date: 2012
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara and nep-mac
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