Turkiye’de Altin: Dis Ticaret, Cari Islemler Dengesi ve Buyume Uzerine Etkisi

Zelal Aktas (), Altan Aldan, Faruk Aydin (), İhsan Bozok and İbrahim Kanlı

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Bu calismada son donemde artan altin ihracatinin dis ticaret rakamlari ve endeksleri, cari islemler dengesi ve buyume uzerine etkileri incelenmistir. Bunun yaninda, gerek net doviz pozisyonunun hesaplanmasi gerekse onumuzdeki donemde altin ihracatinin surdurulebilirliginin bir gostergesi olmasi acisindan, Turkiye icin altin stoku tahmini yapilmistir. 1984 yilindan bu yana Turkiye’de onemli miktarda altin stoku (en az 2189 ton) biriktirildigi tahmin edilmektedir. Parasal olmayan altin kaleminin ihracat fiyat endeksine dahil edilmezken ithalat fiyat endeksine dahil edilmesi nedeniyle, dis ticaret endekslerinin yorumlanmasinda soz konusu durumun dikkate alinmasi geregi degerlendirilmistir. Altin fiyatlarinda son yillarda gozlenen hizli yukselisin net altin ithalatcisi olunan 2011’de cari islemler acigini genisletici, net altin ihracatcisi olunan 2012 yilinda ise cari islemler acigini daraltici etkisi oldugu gorulmektedir. Son olarak, 2012 yilinda altin net dis talebinin karsilanmasinda yurt ici uretimin payinin cok dusuk oldugu ve dolayisiyla altin ihracatinin GSYIH yillik buyumesine katkisinin sinirli oldugu tahmin edilmektedir. [EN] This note examines the impact of recent hikes in gold exports on foreign trade figures and indices, current account balance and economic growth. Besides, Turkey’s gold stock is estimated to account for the net foreign exchange position and to make inference on the sustainability of gold exports. Turkey is projected to accumulate significant amount of gold stock (2189 tons at minimum) since 1984. The exclusion of non-monetary gold item in the export price index measurements generates need for a cautious interpretation of the foreign trade indices. The upward trend in gold prices in the last years have a widening effect on the current account deficit in 2011, when Turkey was a net gold importer and a contractionary effect on 2012, when Turkey was a net gold exporter. Finally, as recent hikes in gold exports are met basically by imports, the impact of gold export increase on growth is presumed to be restricted.

Date: 2012
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