Parasal Genisleme Politikalarinin Gelismekte Olan Ulke Portfoy Akimlari Kompozisyonuna Etkisi

Yasemin Barlas and Neslihan Kaya

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Bu notta, kuresel finansal kriz sonrasinda gelismis ulkelerce yurutulen genisletici para politikalarinin gelismekte olan ulkelere sermaye akimlarini portfoy tercihi ayriminda nasil etkiledigi incelenmekte ve portfoy akimlarini belirleyen faktorler arastirilmaktadir. Soz konusu politikalar neticesinde olusan likidite fazlasinin yaninda, duraganlasan buyume gorunumu ve belirsizlik ortaminin yol actigi yuksek getirili ve kisa vadeli yatirim arayisinin, son donemde yatirimcilarin gelismekte olan ulke borclanma senedi piyasalarina girislerini belirgin bicimde artirdigi gorulmektedir. Ote yandan, gelismis ulkelere kiyasla daha az sekteye ugrayan gelismekte olan ulkelerdeki ekonomik faaliyet, bu donemde gelismekte olan ulke hisse senedi piyasalarina olagandan daha fazla yatirim cekmede yetersiz kalmistir. Bulgular, bu surecte bollasan kuresel likiditenin borclanma senedi akimlarinda anlamli bir yapisal kirilmaya neden oldugunu, ancak benzer bir degisimin hisse senedi akimlari icin gecerli olmadigini ortaya koymaktadir. [EN] In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, when cutting interest rates proved not to be enough to stimulate their shattered economies, advanced countries have adopted unconventional tools to ease their monetary policies, that led to excess liquidity on a global scale. This note analyses how capital flows to emerging markets are affected from these recent monetary policy actions of advanced countries and investigates the determinants of capital flows under a portfolio investment breakdown. Both the ample liquidity conditions, and the search for high yielding low maturity assets, due to deteriorating global economic outlook and increased uncertainty, have significantly increased flows to emerging market bond funds. On the other hand, relatively better economic activity in emerging markets compared to their advanced counterparts was not sufficient to attract capital to equity markets above normal levels. The findings suggest that ample liquidity in the aftermath of the crisis led to a significant structural shift in emerging market bond funds, while a similar change was not observed in emerging market equity funds.

Date: 2013
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