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Pazar Buyuklugu ve Pazar Payi Bilesenleri Kullanilarak Turkiye’nin Ihracat Buyumesi ve Dis Ticaret Acigi Projeksiyonlari: 2013-2030

Okan Eren

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Bu notta, cari fiyatlarla Turkiye ihracatinin buyumesi basitce ihracat agirlikli kuresel pazar (hasila) buyumesi ve pazar payi buyumesi bilesenlerine ayrilmakta ve gerek toplam ihracat gerekse de her bir bilesen icin 2013-2030 donemine iliskin projeksiyonlar uretilmektedir. Yapilan hesaplamalara gore, projeksiyon doneminde Turkiye ihracatinin yillik ortalama yuzde 11,2 oraninda buyuyecegi ongorulmektedir. Bu orana, kuresel talep ve pazar payi buyumeleri sirasiyla 6,1 ve 4,9 puanlik katki yapmaktadir. Turkiye ihracatindaki paylarina gore, gorece daha yuksek buyume oranlarina sahip Ortadogu ve Kuzey Afrika ulkeleri bu donemin sonunda ilk siraya yukselirken, Bati Avrupa ulkeleri ikinci siraya gerilemektedir. [EN] In this note, the export growth rate of Turkey is simply partitioned into two components: export weighted growth rates of global market size and market share. The growth rates of exports and its main components are produced between 2013 and 2030. The calculations show that the exports of Turkey grow at the average rate of 11.2 percent per annum during the projection period. The global market size and the share of Turkey in this market contribute 6.1 and 4.9 percentage points to this average rate, respectively. At the end of this period, the Middle Eastern and North African countries, which enjoy relatively higher growth rates, rise to the first place while the West European countries fall down to the second place when ranked with respect to their shares in Turkish exports.

Date: 2013
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