The Capacity Buildup over the Past Decade and the Capacity Utilization Rate in Turkey

Ufuk Demiroglu and Cagri Sarikaya (cagri.sarikaya@tcmb.gov.tr)

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [EN] With the rapid recovery from the 2009 crisis, major indicators such as GDP and industrial production returned to their pre-crisis trends. This appears inconsistent with the picture obtained from the capacity utilization rate (CUR). The CUR had been relatively flat in the years before the 2009 crisis at a level considered to be consistent with stable inflation, and fell sharply when the crisis hit. Then it recovered significantly but not fully. The CUR is still substantially below its above-mentioned level that prevailed in pre-crisis years. The lack of a full recovery in the CUR to its pre-crisis trend despite the successful recovery in other variables might raise questions about the reliability of the CUR as a measure of excess capacity, and about the conclusion that the economy might be producing below its potential. This note argues that the CUR has not recovered fully because of the strength of investment (especially of machinery and equipment investment) over the past decade. The high level of investment resulted in above-trend growth in capacity. When the effect of that additional growth in capacity is removed from the CUR, the emerging picture is consistent with the one obtained from the other indicators. [TR] GSYH ve sanayi uretimi gibi ana gostergeler 2009 krizi sonrasinda iktisadi faaliyetin oldukca hizli bir sekilde toparlanarak uzun donem egilimine geri dondugune isaret etmektedir. Kapasite kullanim orani (KKO) ise bu resimle uyumsuz bir gorunum sergilemektedir. Kriz oncesi yillarda dengeli olarak degerlendirilebilecek bir seviyede yatay bir seyir izleyen KKO, 2009 krizinde hizla dusmus, ardindan buyuk olcude toparlanmakla birlikte kriz oncesi yillarda hakim olan seviyesine ulasamamistir ve anilan seviyenin belirgin sekilde altinda seyretmektedir. Diger gostergeler toparlanmaya isaret ederken KKO’nun tumuyle toparlanmamis olmasi, KKO’dan gelen atil kapasite mesajinin guvenilirligi konusunda soru isaretlerine yol acabilir. Bu calismada anilan uyumsuzluk yatirimlarin guclu seyretmis olmasina baglanmaktadir. Gerek kriz sonrasindaki toparlanma doneminde gerekse kriz oncesi yillarda yatirimlarin (ozellikle makine techizat yatirimlarinin) guclu olmasi sonucu, uretim kapasitesindeki artis uretimdeki artistan daha hizli olmus, bu durum kapasite kullanim oranini dusuk tutmustur. Soz konusu yatirim etkisi cikarildiginda KKO’nun sundugu resim diger gostergelerle uyumludur.

Date: 2013
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