Cesitli Enflasyon Beklentisi Olcutleri Kullanilarak Genel Bir Enflasyon Beklentisi Gostergesi Elde Edilmesi

Murat Duran (), Eda Gulsen () and Orhun Sevinc

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Bu notta, faktor analizi kullanilarak, Turkiye’de kisa ve orta vadeli enflasyona iliskin anket ve piyasa bazli cesitli beklenti olcutlerinin ortak hareketini yakalayan kompozit beklenti gostergeleri elde edilmeye calisilmistir. Ortaya cikan gostergeler anketlerle belirli kesimlerin egilimlerini olcmek amaciyla tasarlanan veya piyasanin ima ettigi beklentiler gibi farkli kaynaklardan gelen bilgiyi harmanlamaktadir. Enflasyon beklentilerinin seviyesinden ziyade degisim yonune iliskin bilgi iceren bu gostergelerin enflasyon beklentilerinin izlenmesi ve yorumlanmasi acisindan faydali olacagi dusunulmektedir. [EN] In this note, using factor analysis, we attempt to construct composite indicators of short and medium term inflation expectations that capture the common movement of various survey and market based measures of inflation expectations. These indicators summarize the information regarding the inflation expectations obtained from financial markets and various surveys which are designed to measure the expectations of different economic agents such as consumers, firms and experts. These indicators provide information regarding the direction of change in the inflation expectations rather than the level and we think that they will prove useful in monitoring and interpreting the inflation expectations.

Date: 2013
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