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Mevsimlik Urunler ve Fiyat Oynakligi: Mevsimlik Urunlerin Fiyat Endeksine Dahil Edilmesi

Oguz Atuk (), Utku Ozmen () and Orhun Sevinc ()

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Bu notta, 2006-2011 doneminde derlenen taze meyve ve sebze fiyatlarindan olusan ozgun bir veri setiyle mevsimlik urun fiyatlarina iliskin yontemlerin tuketici fiyat endeksi oynakligina etkileri ilk kez sayisallastirilmaktadir. Calismayla amaclanan Turkiye icin en iyi yontemi onermek degil ; yaygin olarak kullanilan cesitli metotlarin etkilerini istatistiksel olarak ortaya koyarak yontem gelistirme calismalarina katkida bulunmaktir. Mevsimlik urun fiyatlarina iliskin yontemlerin bilesimlerine gore 720 farkli taze meyve ve sebze fiyat endeksi hesaplanmistir. Sonuclar oynaklikta en buyuk iyilestirmeyi 2 veya 3 aylik ortalama fiyat kullanimi ile sabit agirlik yontemlerinin sagladigini gostermektedir. Bu yontemlere gore hesaplanmis taze meyve ve sebze fiyat endekslerinin grup fiyatlarindaki mevsimsel yapiyi daha net sekilde ortaya cikarmasi alternatif yontemlerin duzensiz mevsimselligin yol actigi asiri oynakligi ayirt etmede basarili olduguna isaret etmektedir. [EN] In this note, we quantify the effect of selected seasonal treatment methods on the volatility of Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the first time using a unique data set of fresh fruits and vegetables prices from 2006 to the end of 2011. The aim of this study is not to offer the best methodology for the treatment of seasonal products, but to contribute to the methodological development efforts by analyzing the effects of widely used methods statistically. Based on the combination of seasonal treatment methods we calculate 720 different fresh fruits and vegetables price indices. Results suggest that the greatest reduction in volatility is achieved when 2 or 3 month price averages and fixed weights are used. Fresh fruits and vegetables price indices treated by the methodology mentioned are shown to reveal a more stable seasonal pattern, suggesting the success of alternative methods in identifying the excessive volatility imposed by irregular seasonality.

Date: 2013
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