Turkiye’de Uretici ve Tuketici Fiyatlari Arasindaki Iliski Uzerine Bir Degerlendirme

Oguz Atuk (), Fethi Ogunc (), Utku Ozmen and Cagri Sarikaya ()

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Bu notta, TUFE ve UFE enflasyon oranlari arasindaki farklilasmanin nedenleri ozetlendikten sonra iki endeks arasindaki geciskenlik iliskisi incelenmektedir. Uretici fiyatlarinin vergi haric derleniyor olmasi ve hizmet fiyatlarini icermemesi, islenmemis gida urunleri ile tarim urunlerinin her iki endekste esanli kapsamlarinin ortusmemesi, tuketici fiyatlarinda goreli payi yuksek belirli urunlerde dolayli vergi artislarinin gozlenmesi, uretici fiyatlarinin kur ve ithalat fiyat geciskenliginin tuketici fiyatlarina kiyasla yuksek olmasi aradaki donemsel farkin temel belirleyicileridir. Ancak, TUFE ve UFE enflasyonlarinin uzun donemli ortalamalarinin birbirine paralel olmasi ve uretici ve tuketici fiyatlarinin uzun donemde birbirine yakinsiyor olmasi sebebiyle donemsel farklarin sistematik bir ayrismaya isaret etmedigi degerlendirilmektedir. Etki-tepki analizlerine dayanan ampirik bulgular, en yakindan iliskili olmasi beklenen cekirdek fiyat tanimlarinda dahi uretici fiyatlarindan tuketici fiyatlarina geciskenligin tam (bire-bir) olmadigi yonundeki gorsel analizleri desteklemektedir. [EN] In this note, the reasons for the difference between CPI and PPI inflation rates are discussed and the pass-through from producer to consumer prices is analyzed. The major determinants of this temporary difference are as follows : Compilation of PPI with tax free prices and the exclusion of prices of services; the mismatch between the contemporary baskets of unprocessed food and agriculture products; indirect tax adjustments for the selected products with a relatively high share in the CPI; the relatively faster and higher pass-through of exchange rate and foreign prices on PPI. Nonetheless, given that the average annual CPI and PPI inflations are similar and that consumer and producer prices converge in the long term, the temporary difference between the two indices does not point to a systematic divergence. Empirical results support visual inspections that imply partial pass-through from producer to consumer prices even when core measures are taken into account.

Date: 2013
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