Turkiye’nin Nufus ve Sosyal Yapisindaki Degisimlerin Hanehalki Tasarruflari Uzerindeki Etkileri

Evren Ceritoğlu and Okan Eren

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Bu calismanin amaci onumuzdeki yillarda Turkiye’nin nufus yapisinda gerceklesmesi beklenen degisimin hanehalki tasarruf oranlarini hangi yonde ve ne kadar etkileyecegini incelemektir. Ayrica, toplam nufus icerisinde universite mezunlarinin sayisinin artmasinin ve isgucune katilim oranlarinin yukselmesinin hanehalki tasarruflari uzerindeki etkileri arastirilmaktadir. Nufus yapisindaki degisimin yani sira universite mezuniyeti ve isgucune katilim oranlarinin artacagi varsayimi altinda, hanehalki tasarruf oraninin 2010 yilindan 2050 yilina kadar olan donemde 7,61 puan artacagi tahmin edilmistir. Soz konusu artisin yaklasik 2,26 puanlik kisminin nufus yapisindaki degisimden, 1,37 puanlik kisminin isgucune katilim oranlarinin yukselmesinden ve 3,81 puanlik bolumunun ise universite mezunlarinin sayisinin artmasindan kaynaklanacagi ongorulmektedir. Bununla birlikte, isgucune katilim oranlarinin yukselmesi ile universite mezunlarinin sayisinin artmasinin birlikte degerlendirilmesinin ortaya cikardigi capraz etkinin hanehalki tasarruf oranina 0,17 puanlik bir katki sagladigi anlasilmaktadir. Elde edilen bulgular universite mezunlarinin oraninin artmasinin hanehalki tasarruflari uzerinde nufus yapisindaki degisime ve isgucune katilim oraninin yukselmesine kiyasla daha onemli oldugunu ortaya cikarmistir. [EN] The aim of this study is to examine and quantify the impact of the change in the structure of population on household savings, which is expected to take place in the following years in Turkey. In addition, the effects of the increase in the number of college graduates in total population and the rise in labor force participation rates on household savings are analyzed. Under the assumption that the change in the structure of population will be accompanied with rising labor force participation rates and the number of college graduates, household saving ratio is projected to increase by 7.61 percentage points between 2010 and 2050. The sole contribution of the change in the structure of population will be 2.26 percentage points, while the contributions of the increases in labor force participation rates and the number of university graduates are expected to be 1.37 and 3.81 percentage points, respectively. Moreover, it is understood that the contribution of the cross effect, which emerges due to the joint evaluation of the rise of labor force participation rates with the increase in the number of university graduates is 0.17 percentage points. According to our empirical findings, the expected increase in the ratio of university graduates has a greater impact on household savings than demographic change and the rise in labor force participation rates.

Date: 2013
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