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Ekonomik Faaliyet icin Bilesik Oncu Gostergeler Endeksi’nde (MBONCU-SUE) Yontemsel Degisim

Aslihan Atabek Demi̇rhan ()

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Bu calismanin amaci, Turkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankasi (TCMB) ile Ekonomik Kalkinma ve Isbirligi Orgutu (OECD) ortak calismasi sonucunda olusturulan ve 2002 tarihinden bu yana aylik olarak yayinlanan bilesik oncu gostergeler endeksi (MBONCU-SUE) yonteminde yapilan degisiklikler hakkinda bilgi vermektir. OECD devresel analizler ve oncu gostergeler sistemi cercevesinde uyguladigi yontemde bazi degisiklikler yapilmistir. Bu degisikliklere uyumlu olacak sekilde, mevcut oncu gostergeler kullanilarak yeni yontem ile MBONCU-SUE hesaplanmistir. Elde edilen yeni MBONCU-SUE’nin beklenildigi uzere daha duzgun bir patika izledigi ve bu nedenle de karar alicilar acisindan daha tutarli ve etkin bilgi sagladigi gorulmustur. [EN] The aim of this study is to inform about recent methodological changes that occurred in the construction of composite leading indicator for Turkish economy activity (MBONCU-SUE). Since 2002, on a monthly basis, MBONCU-SUE has been published as a result of cooperation between Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) and Organisation of Economic Developments (OECD). OECD’s cyclical analysis and leading indicators system has been gone under several technical changes. Parallel to those changes, with the current leading indicators, MBoNCu-SuE is constructed via new methodology. The obtained new MBoNCu-SUE displays smoother pattern as expected which provides more robust and efficient information to the policy makers.

Date: 2014
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara and nep-cwa
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