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Uluslararasi Hububat Fiyatlarinin Yurt Ici Fiyatlara Yansimasi

Fatih Akcelik and Burc Tuger

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Uluslararasi hububat fiyatlariyla yurt ici fiyatlar arasindaki iliskinin incelendigi bu calismada, iki fiyat serisi arasinda uzun vadeli bir iliskinin olmadigi bulunmustur. Kisa vadede ise, Ocak 2003-Eylul 2014 doneminde uluslararasi hububat fiyatlarindaki yuzde 10’luk artisin (azalisin) tuketici enflasyonunda ortalama 0,084 puanlik artisa (azalisa) neden oldugu gozlenmistir. Ancak yakin donemde bu etkinin onemli oranda azaldigi bulgulanmistir. Bu durum, son yillarda hububat fiyatlari kaynakli enflasyon artisinin yurt ici arz ve talep kosullarindan kaynaklandigina isaret etmektedir. [EN] In this study, we examine the relationship between domestic prices and international grain prices, and we find out that there is no long-term (cointegrating) relationship between these two price series. In the short-term, we observe that 10 percent increase (decrease) in international grain prices lead to a 0.084 points increase (decrease) in consumer price inflation on average in the January 2003-September 2014 period. However, we document that this effect has significantly declined recently. Thereby, we conclude that recent increase in inflation which is led by increases in the price of grains; is mostly due to domestic supply and demand conditions of grains.

Date: 2015
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