Petrol Fiyatlarinin Ihracat Uzerindeki Etkisi

Olcay Çulha, Utku Ozmen and Erdal Yılmaz ()

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Petrol fiyatlarinda 2014 yilinin ikinci yarisindan itibaren gozlenen ciddi dusus, petrol fiyatlarinin dis denge uzerindeki etkilerine iliskin tartismalari gundeme getirmistir. Soz konusu dusus petrol ihrac eden ulkelerden petrol ithal eden ulkelere reel gelirlerin kaymasina yol acmaktadir. Bu cercevede, bu calismada, ihracatin yaklasik ucte birinin petrol ihrac eden ulkelere, ucte ikisinin ise petrol ithal eden ulkelere yapildigi dikkate alinarak, petrol fiyatlarindaki degisimin Turkiye’nin ihracatini nasil etkileyecegi konusu ele alinmistir. Ilk asamada petrol fiyatlarinin, Turkiye’nin ihracat yaptigi petrol ihrac/ithal eden ulkelerin buyumelerine etkisi analiz edilmis, beklendigi gibi petrol fiyatlarindaki degisimin bu ulkelerin buyumesi uzerindeki etkisinin asimetrik oldugu bulunmustur. Ikinci asamada ise bu ulke gruplari icin buyumenin ihracati nasil etkiledigi ihracat talep fonksiyonu araciligiyla tahmin edildikten sonra, son asamada tahmin edilen petrol fiyati-buyume ve buyume-ihracat esneklikleri kullanilarak, petrol fiyatlarinin ihracat uzerine etkisi hesaplanmistir. Bulgular, mevcut ihracat paylari dikkate alindiginda petrol fiyatlarinin ihracat uzerindeki net etkisinin sinirli olduguna isaret etmektedir. [EN] Substantial decline in oil prices observed since the second half of 2014 has brought forward discussions on the impact of oil prices on the external balance. This decline is expected to shift real income from oil exporter countries to oil importer countries. In this context, in this study, the effect of change in oil prices on Turkey’s exports is discussed taking into account the fact that Turkey’s export to oil exporting countries has approximately one-third share in total exports, while export to oil importing countries has a share of two-thirds. At the first step, the effect of oil prices on economic growth of trade partners of Turkey is analyzed, where countries are grouped according to their net oil export position. As expected, it is found that the effect of oil prices on different country groups’ growth is asymmetric. In the second stage, for two groups of countries, growth-export elasticity through Turkey’s export demand function is estimated. Finally, effect of oil prices on exports is calculated considering different income effects caused by oil price change on each country groups. Results indicate that the net effect of oil prices on the exports is limited considering the current export shares.

Date: 2015
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara, nep-cwa and nep-ene
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