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Turkiye Konut Sektorune Iliskin Bilesik Oncu Gostergeler Endeksi

Aslihan Atabek Demi̇rhan () and Defne Mutluer Kurul

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Son donemde Turkiye ekonomisinin lokomotiflerinden biri olmasina ek olarak cimento, demir-celik, plastik vb. bircok alt sektoru etkilemesi nedeniyle konut sektorundeki gelismeler yakindan takip edilmektedir. Sektorun takibi karar alicilarin zamaninda ve dogru mudahaleler yapmasi acisindan buyuk oneme sahiptir. Bu calismanin amaci ise, ekonomik zaman serilerinin devresel hareketlerini izlemeye olanak sunan bilesik oncu gostergeler yaklasimini kullanarak Turkiye konut sektoru icin oncu gostergeler endeksi olusturmaktir. Konut arz ve talebinde etkili oldugu dusunulen gostergeler arasindan ekonomik ve istatistiksel anlamliligi en yuksek olan degiskenler secilerek konut sektorune iliskin olusturulan bilesik oncu gostergeler endeksinin, konut sektoru gelismelerini bir ceyrek onceden onculedigi gorulmustur. [EN] In the recent years, in addition to its interaction with many industries, housing sector has become as one of the leading sector for the Turkish economy. Hence, monitoring housing sector has an important role for timely and correct response of policy makers. The aim of this study is to construct a leading indicator for the housing sector in Turkey using composite leading indicator approach. Among the basic economic indicators, the most significant variables that possess both statistical and economic sense are chosen for the construction of composite leading indicator for Turkish housing sector.

Date: 2015
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