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Turkiye’de Tuketici ve Ticari Kredilerin Cari Acikla Iliskisi

Zeynel Harun Aliogullari, Yusuf Baskaya, Yunus Bulut and Mustafa Kilinc

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Bu calismada, Turkiye’deki tuketici ve ticari kredi buyumelerinin cari acikla iliskisi incelenmistir. 2003C2-2015C2 donemini kapsayan veriyle yapilan regresyon sonuclari, Turkiye’de tuketici kredisi buyumesinin ilgili donemde cari dengeyi istatistiki olarak anlamli ve olumsuz yonde etkiledigini, ticari kredi buyumesinin ise cari denge uzerinde istatistiki olarak anlamli bir etkisinin bulunmadigini gostermektedir. Sonuclar, TCMB’nin temel hedefi olan fiyat istikrarini surdurmek yaninda finansal istikrari da gozeten yeni para politikasi cercevesinin ve finansal istikrarin saglanmasiyla sorumlu diger kuruluslarin aldigi makroihtiyati tedbirlerin Turkiye’de finansal istikrari destekleyici yonde calistigini gostermektedir. [EN] In this paper, the relationship between consumer and commercial loan growths and current account deficit in Turkey is investigated. The regression results using 2003Q2-2015Q2 period reveal that in Turkey consumer loan growth negatively and statistically significantly affects current account balance, while commercial loan growth has no statistically significant effect on current account balance. The results indicate that the new monetary policy framework of CBRT which takes into account the financial stability while keeping the price stability as the primary objective and the macroprudential measures taken by other related agencies work to enhance the financial stability in Turkey.

Date: 2015
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