Adjusting Industrial Production with Abnormal Temperature Conditions

Çağlar Yüncüler

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [EN] In this study, we aim to estimate the impact of temperature related abnormal weather conditions on Industrial Production Index (IPI) in Turkey. In doing so, we augment monthly average temperature net of seasonal norms into the seasonal adjustment process as an additional regressor. The results show that temperature related effects distort the standard seasonal adjustment of IPI series. The extent to which weather conditions affect IPI is heterogeneous and even asymmetrical across main industrial sectors. While the deviations during the winter take negative values for the manufacturing industry, it takes positive values for electricity production. Finally, weather and seasonal adjusted IPI series are found to be smoother and the monthly changes are less volatile. [TR] Bu calismada, sicaklik kaynakli olagan disi hava kosullarinin Turkiye’de Sanayi Uretim Endeksi (SUE) uzerindeki etkileri tahmin edilmeye calisilmistir. Bu kapsamda aylik ortalama sicakliklarin mevsim ortalamalarindan farki ek bir degisken olarak SUE’nin mevsim ve takvim etkilerinden arindirma islemine dahil edilmistir. Sonuclar, normalden farkli sicaklik seviyelerinin SUE’nin standart yontemlerle mevsim ve takvim etkilerinden arindirilmasini bozdugunu gostermektedir. Sicaklik sartlarinin SUE’yi etkileme derecesi, SUE’yi olusturan ana sektorler arasinda asimetri ve heterojenlik gostermektedir. Imalat sanayinde kis aylarina iliskin tahmin edilen katsayilar eksi degerler alirken, elektrik uretimi icin arti deger almaktadir. Son olarak, hava, mevsim ve takvim etkilerinden arindirilmis SUE serisinin mevsim ve takvim etkilerinden arindirilmis SUE serisinden daha puruzsuz, aylik degisimlerinin ise daha az oynak oldugu bulunmustur.

Date: 2016
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/87a31862-b ... 97548d812dd7-m3fw5q4 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:tcb:econot:1611

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by () and ().