Petrol Fiyatlarinda Uzun Donemli Cevrimler

Fatma Erdem and Ibrahim Unalmis

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Petrol fiyatlarinda gectigimiz on yilda yasanan hizli yukselis ve Haziran 2014’ten itibaren devam eden dusus egilimi emtia fiyatlarindaki uzun donemli cevrimlerin tekrar tanimlanmasini gundeme getirmistir. Bu amacla, bu calismada ilk olarak petrol fiyatlarindaki uzun donemli cevrimler tespit edilmeye calisilmis ve fiyatlarin hangi evrede oldugu tartisilmistir. Bulgular, son 150 yilda petrol fiyatlarinda uc uzun donemli cevrimin bulunduguna isaret etmekte ve 1990’larin ikinci yarisinda baslayan son uzun donemli cevrimin 2013 yilindan sonra dusus evresine girdigini ve 2018 yilina kadar devam edecegini gostermektedir. Bu baglamda, petrol fiyatlarinin bir sure daha dusuk seyretmesinin petrol ithal eden ulkelerin buyume ve dis ticaret dengesi uzerinde olumlu, ihrac edenlerin buyume ve petrol gelirleri uzerinde olumsuz etkilerinin olmasi beklenmektedir. [EN] Fast rise in oil prices in the last decade and downward trend since June 2014 have raised the issue of identifying long term cycles (super-cycles) in oil prices. To this aim, in this study firstly super-cycles in oil prices are identified and which phase of the cycles oil prices are in is investigated. Results indicate that in the last 150 years there are three identified super-cycles in oil prices. Latest super-cycle in oil prices, started in the second half of 1990s, has been in the contraction period since 2013 and is expected to last in 2018. As our results indicate, oil prices continue stay low, hence, low level of prices will support economic growth and reduce oil import bill in importing countries and dampen economic growth and reduce oil export revenue in exporting countries.

Date: 2016
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:tcb:econot:1612

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