Kamu Yatirimlarinin Tamamlanma Suresinin Kisaltilmasinin Refah Etkisi
Hüseyin Özbilgin ()
CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
[TR] Bu calisma son donemde kamu yatirimlarinin tamamlanma suresinde gozlemlenen kisalmanin sosyal refah uzerine yaptigi etkiyi olcmeyi amaclamaktadir. Bu amac dogrultusunda kamu yatirimlarinin kamu sermaye stokuna donusmesinin zaman aldigi bir reel is cevrimleri modeli insa edilmistir. Modele gore Turkiye ekonomisinin yakin donem tecrubesindeki gibi kamu yatirimlarinin tamamlanma suresinin yaklasik 9 yildan 4 yila dusurulmesi uzun vadeli etkiler gerceklestiginde tuketimde her donem ve kosulda yuzde 0,69 oraninda bir artisa tekabul etmektedir. Bu onemli refah kazanimlari, reformun kamu yatirimlarina olan talebi artirmasi, artan talebin ozel yatirimlari da yukseltmesi ve nihayette ekonomi genelinde sermaye stokunun daha yuksek bir degere ulasmasi sonucu gerceklesmektedir. [EN] This study aims to measure the welfare impact of the recent improvement in the duration of completion of the public investment projects in the Turkish economy. For this purpose, a real business cycle model is constructed in which the public capital is subject to a time-to-build constraint. The model is utilized to study a reform that mimics the recent Turkish experience, namely, shortening the completion duration to 4 years from roughly 9 years. The model implies that such a reform, when all the long-run effects are realized, leads to significant welfare gains corresponding to a 0.69 percent increase in consumption in all future states and time. These remarkable welfare gains are brought about by a higher economy-wide capital stock that is facilitated by an increased demand for public investment, and the accompanying upswing in the private investment.
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