Turkiye’de Gida Enflasyonunun Belirleyicileri

Okan Eren, Suleyman Kal and Utku Ozmen

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Turkiye’de gida fiyatlari son yillarda genel fiyat seviyesinden daha hizli bir oranda artmaktadir. Genel fiyat seviyesindeki degisime yaptigi katki da dikkate alindiginda gida enflasyonunun temel surukleyicilerinin bilinmesi buyuk onem arz etmektedir. Bu calismada, ureticiye odenen fiyat, uretim, ihracat ve ithalat miktarlarinin tuketici fiyatini nasil etkiledikleri panel vektor otoregresyon yontemi kullanilarak analiz edilmistir. Bu dogrultuda, tuketici fiyatlari endeksi (TuFE) gida sepetinin yaklasik yarisini kapsayan secilmis urunlerden olusan bir orneklem kullanilmistir. Calismanin bulgulari, tuketici fiyatlarini en guclu sekilde etkileyen unsurlarin, sirasiyla, ureticiye odenen fiyat ve yurt icine arz edilen uretim miktari oldugunu ortaya koymaktadir. Bu cercevede, elde edilebilecek en temel politika cikarimi ise gida enflasyonunun azaltilmasinda yurt ici arzi artirmaya yonelik politikalarin oldukca etkili olabilecegidir. Diger taraftan, yurtdisindan belirgin olarak daha ucuza temin edilebilecek urunlerin donemsel ve gecici olarak ithal edilmesi, gida enflasyonundaki artisi sinirlamak ve gida fiyatlarindaki oynakligi gidermek acisindan dengeleyici bir rol oynayarak fiyat ve arz istikrarina katkida bulunabilecektir. [EN] Food prices in Turkey are rising at a faster rate than the general price level. Taking into account its contribution to the change in the general price level, it is important to have a good understanding of the main drivers of food inflation. By utilizing a panel vector autoregressive model, this study analyzes the effects of producer prices, quantity of production as well as export and import quantities on consumer food prices. The results provide evidence that consumer prices are affected mostly by producer prices and quantity of production supplied to the domestic market. In this respect, as a major policy implication, it can be inferred that supply-enhancing measures can be very effective on reducing food inflation. On the other hand, temporary and seasonal importation of items that can be acquired significantly at lower prices from abroad can serve to stabilize prices and supply by reducing price volatility and restricting the rise in food inflation.

Date: 2017
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:tcb:econot:1715

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