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Turk Bankacilik Sektoru icin Kredi Acigi Gostergeleri

Halil Aydin and Gökhan Yılmaz

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Bu calismada iktisat yazinindaki kredi buyumesini degerlendirme amacina yonelik yontemler kullanilarak son 20 yilda Turk bankacilik sektoru icin kredi acigi gostergeleri incelenmektedir. Bu dogrultuda, toplam kredilerin gayri safi yurt ici hasilaya (GSYIH) orani ve reel kredi miktari ile bu buyukluklerin kendi egilimlerinden sapmasi kullanilarak tarihsel kredi acigi gostergeleri olusturulmustur. Gostergelerin kredi gelismeleri acisindan nasil yorumlanabilecegi, Turkiye ekonomisinde gorulen is cevrimlerinin ozellikleri dikkate alinarak tartisilmistir. Yapilan analizler sonucunda seriler olusturulurken kullanilan filtrelerin is cevrimlerine dair varsayimlara duyarli oldugu ve bu durumun farkli politika cikarimlarina neden olabilecegi gosterilmistir. Ayrica, her bir gostergenin isaret ettigi asiri kredi buyumesi donemleri tanimlanmis ve tartisilmistir.[EN] This study examines the credit gap indicators for the Turkish banking sector during last 20 years using methods employed in the literature for evaluating credit growth. In doing so, historical credit gap indicators are constructed by total credits to GDP ratio and real credit growth as well as their deviations from trend. Considering the business cycle dynamics in the Turkish economy, how those indicators should be interpreted for the credit developments is discussed. Results show that filters used in creating the series are sensitive to underlying assumptions about business cycles which may lead to different policy implications. Moreover, excessive credit growth periods implied by each indicator are identified and discussed.

Date: 2019
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