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Country Risk Premium and Domestic Macroeconomic Fundamentals When Global Risk Appetite Slides

Fatih Akcelik and Salih Fendoglu ()

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [EN] We provide evidence that domestic macroeconomic fundamentals play a stronger role for country risk premium dynamics for emerging market economies when global risk appetite is not accommodative. Based on a threshold dynamic panel fixed effects model and for a set of seven emerging market economies, we find that a deterioration in current account balance, international reserves, or fiscal budget balance, and an increase in foreign currency debt of non-financial corporates is estimated to increase the country risk premium more strongly when global risk appetite slides. Domestic macroeconomic fundamentals appear to matter less for the risk premium when global risk appetite is accommodative. [TR] Kuresel risk istahinin bozuldugu donemlerde, destekleyici oldugu donemlere kiyasla ulke risk primi icin yurtici makroekonomik temeller daha onemli midir? Bu soruyu ele almak icin, yedi gelismekte olan ulke icin dinamik panel esik sabit etki modeli kullaniyoruz. Ampirik sonuclar, cari isl emler dengesi, uluslararasi rezerv yeterliligi, finansal olmayan sirketlerin yabanci para borclulugu veya kamu butce dengesinde bozulmanin, kuresel risk istahinin dusuk oldugu donemlerde ulke risk primini daha guclu bir sekilde arttirdigini gostermektedir. Bulgularimiz kuresel risk istahi destekleyici oldugunda, yurtici makroekonomik temellere ulke risk primi acisindan daha az onem atfedildigine isaret etmektedir.

Date: 2019
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