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TL Deger Kaybi Karsisinda Ihracatin Karliligi

Ufuk Demiroglu

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Kur artislarinin dis ticaret dengesine cok olumlu bir etki yapmayabilecegine dair bazi gorus ve yorumlarla siklikla karsilasilmaktadir. Ornegin, Marshall-Lerner kosulunun saglanmasi gerektigi aksi takdirde dis ticaret dengesini duzeltici etkisinin kesin olmadigi, veya yabanci musterilerin Turk ihracatcilara fiyat dusurttugu ve bunun ihracat artisini yavaslattigi seklinde gorusler dile getirilmektedir. Bu calisma anilan gorusleri guncel calismalar isiginda ve son yillardaki kur degisimi ozelinde incelemekte ve soz konusu goruslerden farkli bir yargiya varmaktadir. Calismanin ana odagi kur hareketlerinin ihracat karliligina etkisidir. Turkiye’de kur artislari buyuk oranda TL cinsi ihracat fiyatlarina artis olarak yansirken, uretim maliyetleri (yurt ici katma deger kismi nedeniyle) kurlardan cok daha yavas artmaktadir. Dolayisiyla kur artislari ihracatin karliligini (hem suregelen ihracat icin hem de yeni uretimde yurt ici satislara goreli olarak) guclu sekilde artirmaktadir. Ithal girdiler hesaba katildiginda da bu sonuc degismemektedir.[EN] Views that Turkish Lira (TRY) depreciations may not produce much improvement in the trade deficit appear regularly in economic commentaries, such as the view that the Marshall-Lerner condition may not be satisfied in Turkey. A recent view that reaches the same conclusion is that customers abroad may be forcing Turkish producers to lower their foreign currency prices in response to TRY depreciations, limiting the positive impact of TRY depreciations on Turkish exports. This study examines the validity of those views for the case of the rapid TRY depreciation of recent years in light of recent research on Turkish pass-through and firm profitability. Those views do not appear to be valid. Increases in the TRY value of foreign currencies are reflected nearly fully in Turkish export prices measured in TRY. In contrast, production costs (measured in TRY) rise much less rapidly than the exchange rates because of the domestic value-added component of production. Consequently, rising exchange rates raises profitability of Turkish exports, in absolute terms for the ongoing export activity as well as in relative terms for new exports relative to new domestic sales. That conclusion does not change when imported inputs are taken into account.

Date: 2019
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:tcb:econot:1909

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