Ana Metal Sanayi Ihracatindaki Egilimler

Kurmaş Akdoğan, Meltem Chadwick, Hulya Saygili and Seref Saygili

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Ana metal sanayi uretim ve ihracatinda 2015 itibariyla yakalanan ivme, dis talepteki zayiflama ve Avrupa Birligi'nde yakin donemde uygulamaya konulan ticaret kisitlayici politikalardan dolayi bir miktar hiz kesmistir. Bu calismada, sektorun gorunumu ve soz konusu ihracat ivmesinin kisa ve uzun donemli kaynaklari ve olasi riskler ele alinmaktadir. Sonuclar, sektorun son yillardaki ihracat performansini kalici kazanimlardan ziyade kisa donemli cevrimsel dinamiklerin belirledigine isaret etmektedir. Ivme kaybinin ortadan kalkmasi icin ihracat performansini olumsuz etkileyen dissal faktorlerin iyilesmesinin yani sira, Turkiye'nin rekabet gucunu artirici orta-uzun donemli politikalarin gelistirilmesi de onem tasimaktadir. [EN] The acceleration in the production and exports of basic metals as of 2015 lost some momentum due to the weakening of external demand and the recent trade restrictive policies imposed by the European Union. In this study, the sectoral outlook and short/long term sources of the said export acceleration are examined and possible risks are discussed. The results indicate that short-term cyclical dynamics rather than permanent gains have determined the recent export performance in the sector. In order to reverse the loss in momentum, developing medium-long term policies to increase competitiveness of Turkey is as significant as the improvements in external causes.

Date: 2019
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