Gelismekte Olan Ulkelerde Tahvil Piyasasina Yonelik Yabanci Yatirimci Pozisyon Endeksi: Arz-Talep Ayristirmasi

S. Tolga Tiryaki (tolga.tiryaki@tcmb.gov.tr) and Erdal Yılmaz (erdal.yilmaz@tcmb.gov.tr)

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Tahvil piyasasinda yabanci yatirimcilarin yerel para birimi cinsinden pozisyonlarinin incelenmesi, kuresel dalgalanmalarda ulkenin ne olcude riske maruz kalabilecegi ya da kuresel gelismelerin ortaya cikardigi firsatlardan ne derece yararlanabileceginin degerlendirilmesi konusunda yol gosterici olmaktadir. Bu calismada, Arslanalp ve Tsuda (2014) calismasinda turetilen yabanci yatirimci pozisyon endeksi, ulkelerin tahvil piyasasindaki arz ve talep kosullarini dikkate alarak guncel verilerle yeniden tanimlanmaktadir. Endekste yer alan ulkelerin birbirine karsi goreli yabanci yatirimci pozisyonu, yabanci yatirimcilarin portfoyunde hangi ulkelerin talep fazlasina sahip oldugu (gosterge ustu, overweight) veya talep acigina sahip oldugu (gosterge-alti, underweight), tahvil arzi da goz onunde bulundurularak degerlendirilmektedir. Ayrica, secili ulkelerden olusan bir grup dahilinde, tahvil piyasalarinda Turkiye'nin yabanci yatirimcilarin portfoyundeki goreli pozisyonunun gelisimi arz ve talep bilesenleriyle birlikte incelenmektedir. [EN] Analysis of foreign investors' positions in local currency bond markets guides the assessments on an economy's risk exposure in the face of global fluctuations or the scope for reaping the benefits from favourable global developments. In this study, the foreign investor position index derived by Arslanalp and Tsuda (2014) is re-defined by taking into account supply and demand conditions in countries' bond markets and using updated data. The relative position of foreign investors, that is, which countries are in excess demand (overweight) and which are in shortage of demand (underweight) in the portfolio of foreign investors, is examined by also considering the supply of bonds. In addition, the evolution of Turkey's position in foreign investors' portfolio in the bond markets of a selected group of countries, is also analysed together with its supply and demand components.

Date: 2020
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