The Role of Real Exchange Rates in Export Price Determination

Faruk Aydin (faruk.aydin@tcmb.gov.tr) and Selcuk Gul

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [EN] This study investigates the determinants of Turkey's export prices measured in foreign currency for the 1994Q1:2019Q3 period. Estimates from separate models using nominal and real exchange rates indicate that movements of the exchange rate have a long-run impact on export prices measured in foreign currency. However, the exchange rate pass-through to export prices in foreign currency is relatively low. This finding indicates that the exchange rate pass-through into export prices measured in local currency is almost complete. Results suggest that low exchange rate pass-through to export prices measured in foreign currency limits the expansionary impact of local currency depreciation, but increases the firms' profitability when the local currency depreciates. Besides, the most significant determinant of export prices measured in foreign currency in the short and long term is the world export prices. [TR] Bu calismada, 1994C1:2019C3 donemi icin Turkiye'nin yabanci para cinsinden ihracat fiyatlarinin belirleyicileri incelenmektedir. Nominal ve reel doviz kurlarinin kullanildigi ayri modellerden elde edilen tahminler, uzun donemde doviz kurundaki hareketlerin yabanci para cinsinden ihracat fiyatlarini etkiledigini gostermektedir. Bununla birlikte, doviz kurunun yabanci para birimi cinsinden ihracat fiyatlarina geciskenligi gorece dusuktur. Soz konusu bulgu, doviz kuru degisimlerinin Turk lirasi cinsinden ihracat fiyatlarina guclu bir sekilde tasindigina isaret etmektedir. Sonuclar yabanci para cinsinden ihracat fiyatlarina zayif doviz kuru geciskenliginin, yerel para birimindeki deger kaybinin yarattigi genisleyici etkiyi sinirladigini, ancak yerel paranin deger kaybi durumunda firma karliligini arttirdigini ima etmektedir. Ayrica, yabanci para cinsinden ihracat fiyatlarinin kisa ve uzun donemde en onemli belirleyicisinin dunya ihracat fiyatlari oldugu gozlenmektedir.

Date: 2020
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara and nep-opm
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