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What Drives Portfolio Flows to Turkey? The Dynamics and a Historical Accounting of the Flows

Zelal Aktas and Neslihan Kaya Eksi

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [EN] Portfolio flows to emerging economies, as well as to Turkey, have been increasingly large and volatile in recent years. This paper aims to shed light on the drivers of portfolio flows to Turkey, for the preceding decade. The drivers are classified using the traditional "push vs. pull" framework, which we augment by a distinction between "cyclical vs structural" factors. While the relative importance of global and country-specific drivers varies over time, in the aftermath of the global financial crisis country-specific ones dominate in driving portfolio flows. Among the global drivers the risk appetite of investors matters most for portfolio flows. Among the domestic drivers, growth, country risk and real interest rate have the highest impact on flows. As for the cyclical vs structural distinction, although cyclical pull factors dominate the structural ones in driving flows, the contribution from the structurals is on the rise. In that respect, both financial resilience and the political and social attributes of the country seem to be important in attracting flows. [TR] Gelismekte olan ulkelere yonelen portfoy akimlari, son yillarda giderek daha yuksek miktarli ancak daha dalgali bir seyir izlemektedir. Turkiye icin de benzer bir durum soz konusudur. Bu calisma, gectigimiz on yillik donemde Turkiye'ye yonelen portfoy akimlarinin belirleyicilerine isik tutmayi amaclamaktadir. Calismamizda portfoy akimlarinin belirleyicileri, geleneksel "iten-ceken faktorler" cercevesine "dongusel ve yapisal" faktorler ayrimi da eklenerek siniflandirilmaktadir. Kuresel ve ulkeye ozgu dinamiklerin goreli onemi zaman icerisinde degismekle beraber, kuresel finansal krizin ardindan ulkeye ozgu dinamiklerin Turkiye'ye yonelen portfoy akimlarinda daha belirleyici oldugu gozlenmistir. Kuresel etmenler icerisinde, uluslararasi yatirimcilarin risk istahi portfoy akimlari acisindan en onemli belirleyicidir. Ulkeye ozgu belirleyiciler arasinda ise, akimlar uzerinde en yuksek etkiye sahip olan degiskenlerin buyume, ulke risk primi ve reel faiz oldugu gorulmektedir. Dongusel ve yapisal ayrim cercevesinde degerlendirildiginde, ulkeye ozgu dongusel faktorler yapisal olanlara karsi baskin olsa da, yapisal faktorlerin onemi giderek artmaktadir. Bu baglamda, gerek finansal sistemin saglamligi gerekse ulkeye ozgu politik ve sosyal ozellikler portfoy akimlarini cekmede onem arz etmektedir.

Date: 2020
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara
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