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Ihracat Agirlikli Kuresel PMI Gostergesinin Dis Talebi Onculeme Gucu

Okan Eren

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Turkiye'nin ihracat mallarina olan dis talebi yansitan ihracat agirlikli kuresel buyume (IAKB) endeksi gerek politika olusturma surecine gerekse akademik calismalara girdi teskil eden temel bir gostergedir. IAKB endeksi, kapsam acisindan iyi bir dis talep gostergesi olmakla birlikte buyume verilerinin gecikmeli aciklanmasindan dolayi zamanlilik acisindan geride kalmaktadir. Bu cercevede, ozellikle icinde bulunulan ceyrekteki IAKB endeksindeki degisimi tahmin etmek icin ulkelerin iktisadi faaliyetlerine iliskin daha zamanli bilgi sunan satin alma yoneticileri endeksi (PMI) kullanilarak olusturulan ihracat agirlikli kuresel PMI (IAKP) oncu gosterge olarak karsimiza cikmaktadir. Bu calismada, IAKP gostergesinin temel dis talep gostergesi olan IAKB endeksindeki degisimleri aciklama ve onculeme gucu irdelenmektedir. Bulgular, IAKP gostergesinin dis talepteki degisimin yuzde 80'ini acikladigina ve bu cercevede iyi bir oncu gosterge olduguna isaret etmektedir. Ayrica dis talep endeksinin sifir buyume oranina karsilik gelen IAKP esik degerinin, kuramsal esik degeri olan 50'nin altinda oldugu gosterilmektedir. [EN] The export-weighted global growth (EWG) index, which measures the external demand for Turkey's exports of goods, is a key indicator that is widely used by both policy makers and researchers. Despite being a good indicator in the sense that it covers the majority of Turkey's export markets, it lags in terms of timeliness because the national growth data on which the index is based are disclosed with notable delays. In this context, the export-weighted global PMI (EWP) indicator, which is constructed from national purchasing managers indexes (PMI`s), provides more timely information on the economic activities of the countries and emerges as a leading indicator for EWG index, especially when nowcasting the foreign demand growth. In this study, I examine the extent to which EWP indicator explains the variation in the growth of EWG index, the main external demand indicator for Turkey. My findings suggest that EWP indicator explains 80 percent of the variation in the external demand growth and hence qualifies as a good leading indicator. I also show that the threshold value of EWP indicator that corresponds to zero growth rate of EWG index is below the hypothetical threshold value of 50.

Date: 2020
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