Kredilerin Ithalati Aciklamadaki Bilgi Degeri

Mert Gokcu

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Ithalat talebinin makro belirleyicilerinin takibinde gelir ve ikame etkilerini gosteren iktisadi faaliyet ve reel kur gostergelerinden siklikla yararlanilmaktadir. Bununla birlikte, son yillarda makro ihtiyati politikalar cercevesinde sekillenebilen kredi gelismelerinin de ithalati aciklamada ilave bilgi degeri olup olmadigi sorusu gundeme gelmistir. Bu amacla yapilan ekonometrik analizler, buyume ve reel kur degiskenleri kontrol edildiginde dahi kredilerin ithalat talebi uzerinde kayda deger bir etkisi olduguna isaret etmektedir. Bulgular, ayrica, kredilerin buyumeyi olumlu etkiledigini gostermektedir. Bu kapsamda, sonuclar ithalat ve dolayisiyla cari islemler dengesi gelismelerinin seyri degerlendirilirken olasi kredi gelismelerinin de dikkate alinmasi gerektigi isaretini verirken, kredilerin hedefli ve selektif bir sekilde net ihracat ve ihracati artirici yatirimlarda kullanilmasinin surdurulebilirlik icin onemini gostermektedir. [EN] While monitoring the macro determinants of import demand, economic activity and real exchange rate indicators representing income and substitution effects respectively are frequently utilized. However, recent developments have raised the question of whether loans developments, which may be shaped within the framework of macroprudential policies, have additional information in explaining imports. Econometric analyzes conducted for this purpose indicate that loans have a significant impact on import demand even if growth and real exchange rate variables are controlled. On the other hand, it is observed that loans have a positive effect on growth. Accordingly, the results signal that the course of the loans should also be taken into account while evaluating the developments of imports and the current account balance while confirming the importance for sustainability to direct targeted and selective loans to net exports and export-enhancing investments.

Date: 2022
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