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Ihracat Oncu Gostergesi Olarak IYA Sorularinin Analizi

Ece Oral Cevirmez and Okan Eren

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Milli gelir buyumesinin onemli surukleyicilerinden olan ihracatin zamanli tahmini politika yapicilar icin kritik onem tasimaktadir. Bu calismada, Turkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankasi (TCMB) tarafindan yurutulmekte olan İktisadi Yonelim Anketi’nde (İYA) yer alan ihracat egilimi ve beklentilerine iliskin sorularin reel ihracat buyumesi ile iliskisi irdelenmistir. Bulgular, altin haric ihracat miktar endeksinin ceyreklik buyumesinin reel efektif doviz kuru ve İhracat Agirlikli Kuresel Buyume (IAKB) endeksi tarafindan aciklandigi temel modele anket verisi eklendiginde aciklanma yuzdesinin belirgin arttigina isaret etmektedir. Bu cercevede, anketten elde edilen zamanli verilerin, reel ihracat tahmin modellerini iyilestirerek politika yapim surecine katki saglayacagi degerlendirilmektedir. [EN] Timely estimation of exports, which is one of the important drivers of national income growth, is of critical importance for policy makers. This study analyzes the relationship between questions regarding the export tendency and expectations in the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkiye’s (CBRT) Business Tendency Survey (BTS) and real export growth. The findings point out that when the survey data is integrated into the basic model, in which the quarterly growth of the export quantity index excluding gold is explained by the real effective exchange rate and the Export Weighted Global Growth index (EWGG), the explanatory power of the model increases noticeably. in this context, it is considered that the timely data obtained from the survey will contribute to the policy making process by improving the real export forecasting models.

Date: 2023
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