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Ani Kredi Buyumesi ve Firma Davranisi: Bir Vaka Analizi

Tarik Alperen Er, Aykut Sengul and Ibrahim Yarba

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Türkiye’de 2022 yilinin ilk yarisinda kredi arzinda Turk lirasi cinsi firma kredilerinin surukleyicisi oldugu ciddi bir ivmelenme gerceklesmistir. Bu calismada, guncel ve genis bir mikro veri seti kullanilarak soz konusu donemde kullandirilan Turk lirasi cinsi kredilerin etkinligi analiz edilmektedir. Firma eslestirme analizi ve farklarin farki yontemiyle elde edilen bulgular, ilgili donemde firmalarin daha fazla kredi kullaniminin kredi kullanimi daha dusuk olan grup ile kiyaslandiginda ihracat performanslarina yansimadigini gostermektedir. Firma olcegi ayriminda incelendiginde ise kucuk ve orta buyuklukteki isletmelerin (KOBİ) ihracat performanslarinda belirgin bir ayrisma gozlenmezken, gorece fazla kredi kullanan buyuk firmalarin daha az kredi kullanan buyuk firmalara kiyasla ihracat performanslarinda belirgin bir dusus gorulmektedir. Ayrica, daha fazla kredi kullanan KOBİ’lerin ithalat, yurt ici girdi alimi, vadesinden once yabanci para cinsi borc kapatma ve net doviz alimlarini artirdigi, daha fazla kredi kullanan buyuk firmalarin ise doviz alimlarini artirma egiliminde oldugu gorulmektedir. calismanin sonuclari, iktisadi yazindaki asiri ve secici olmayan kredi genislemelerinin gelismekte olan ulkelerde verimlilik artisina neden olmadigi yonundeki bulgulari teyit ederken, kredilerin arz ve talep dengesini destekleyecek sekilde secici ve istikrarli gelisimini saglayan politikalarin onemine isaret etmektedir. [EN] In Türkiye, a significant rise was experienced in loan supply driven by TL-denominated corporate loans, which led to a serious acceleration in loan growth in the first half of 2022. Using a rich micro data set, this study analyzes the effectiveness of loans granted in the first half of 2022. Utilizing the combination of coarsened exact matching procedure and difference-in-differences methodology, the results show that the relatively higher use of loans in the relevant period was not reflected in the export performances of the firms. in terms of firm scale, while there is no significant difference in export performances of SMEs, large firms that use higher amount of credit experienced a remarkable decline in their export revenues compared to large firms with relatively less usage of credit. Also, SMEs that use higher amount of credit increased their imports, domestic input purchases, FX denominated debt settlement and net foreign currency purchases, while large firms that use more loans tend to increase their net foreign currency purchases. The results confirm the findings in the literature that excessive and untargeted credit expansions may not lead to productivity gains in developing countries, and they point to the importance of policies that ensure selective and stable development of credit growth in a way that supports the credit supply and demand balance.

Date: 2023
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