Krediler ve Dis Ticaret Dengesi

Aysu Celgin, Okan Eren and Pınar Özbay Özlü

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Bu calismada toplam ve tuketici-ticari ayriminda kredi kullanimlarinin, altin-enerji haric dis ticaret dengesi (cekirdek dis ticaret dengesi) ile altin ve enerji ticaret dengelerine etkileri ayri ayri incelenmektedir. Bulgular, toplam kredi kullanimindaki artisin (azalisin) cekirdek dis ticaret acigini artirdigina (azalttigina) isaret etmektedir. Kredi alt ayrimlarinda incelendiginde hem tuketici hem ticari kredilerin cekirdek dis ticaret dengesini etkiledigi gorulmektedir. Ayrica, toplam ve tuketiciticari ayrimindaki kredi kullanimlarinin altin ticareti acigini da istatistiksel olarak anlamli bir bicimde artirdigi sonucuna ulasilmistir. Diger taraftan, enerji ticaret acigi uzerinde toplam ve alt kalem kredi kullaniminin istatistiksel ve iktisadi olarak anlamli bir etkisi bulunmazken enerji fiyat artislarinin (azalislarinin) yukari (asagi) yonlu etkisi oldugu gorulmektedir. [EN] This study analyzes the effect of total and consumer-commercial credit utilization on the core trade balance, i.e. the trade balance excluding gold and energy, and the gold and energy trade balances separately. The findings indicate that an increase (decrease) in total credit utilization increases (decreases) the core trade deficit. When analyzed by credit sub-categories, it is observed that both consumer and commercial credit affect the core trade balance. In addition, this paper has shown that total and consumer-commercial credit utilization statistically significantly increases the gold trade deficit. On the other hand, total and sub-item credit utilization does not have a statistically and economically significant effect on the energy trade deficit, while the increases (decreases) in energy prices have an upward (a downward) effect on the deficit.

Date: 2025
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