Konut Kredisi Kaynakli Nakit Akisi Kanalinin Hanehalki Tuketimine Etkisi

Emel Sati Hacihasanoglu, Nursel Yavuzarslan and Erdal Yilmaz

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Bu calismada, para politikasinin tuketimi etkileyen kanallarindan biri olan nakit akisi kanalina odaklanilmakta ve bu kanalin Turkiye’de nasil isledigi ortaya konulmaktadir. Calismada, yazindaki diger calismalardan farkli olarak, faiz indirim dongusunde konut kredi faiz orani sabit olsa dahi nakit akis kanalinin calisabilecegi gosterilmektedir. Faiz indirim dongusunun ongorulmeyen yuksek enflasyona yol actigi durumda bireylerin ongordugumuz harcanabilir gelirlerinden tuketime donusebilecek bir alan olusmaktadir. Ayrica, nakit akisi kanalinin yuksek enflasyon donemi boyunca daha fazla alan yaratarak tuketime goreli yuksek katki sagladigi gosterilmistir. Acilan alanin, konut kredisi aylik taksit tutari ne kadar buyuk ve gelir artisi ne kadar yuksekse o kadar fazla oldugu gosterilmistir. Analiz sonuclarina gore nakit akisinin ozel tuketim harcamalarina birikimli katkisi 2022 yilindan itibaren artmaya baslamis, 2024 yili icin ise %6,9 olarak hesaplanmistir. [EN] This study focuses on the cash-flow channel, one of the monetary policy channels affecting consumption, and examines how this channel works in Türkiye. Unlike other studies in the literature, our study demonstrates that the cash-flow channel can still work during a monetary easing cycle, even when mortgage loan interest rates are fixed. In cases where the interest rate easing cycle leads to unanticipated high inflation, individuals' estimated incomes increase, reducing the ratio of mortgage interest payments to income and creating room for consumption. Additionally, the study shows that the cash-flow channel contributes significantly to consumption by creating more space during periods of high inflation. The size of the space created by cash flow is found to be larger when both the monthly mortgage payment and income rise are higher. According to the analysis, the cumulative contribution of cash flow from housing loans to consumption began increasing after 2022 and is estimated to be 6.9% for 2024.

Date: 2025
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