Ramadan and Food Prices: Novel Evidence from Micro-Level Data

Aslýhan Atabek Demirhan, Saide Simin Bayraktar, Muhammed Bahca and Saide Simin Bayraktar

CBT Research Notes in Economics from Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Abstract: [TR] Bu calisma, Ramazan ayinin gida fiyatlari uzerindeki etkisini makro fiyat endeksleri ve mikro duzeyde yuksek frekansli perakende fiyat verilerini birlikte kullanarak detayli bir sekilde analiz etmektedir. Makro fiyat endeksleri kullanilarak elde edilen bulgular, Ramazan ayinin gida fiyatlari uzerinde oncu, es anli ve gecikmeli yukari yonlu baski olusturdugunu gostermektedir. Mikro duzey analizler, Ramazan etkisinin urun gruplari ve market turleri arasinda farklilastigini; islenmemis gida urunlerinde fiyat oynakliginin Ramazan ayinda belirgin bir sekilde arttigini ortaya koymaktadir. Elde edilen sonuclar, Ramazan ayinin sadece mevsimsel bir unsur olarak degil, gida fiyatlari acisindan ongorulebilir ve izlenebilir bir donemsel risk unsuru olarak ele alinmasinin onemine vurgu yapmaktadir. Bu cercevede, Ramazan ayi etkisinin kisa vadeli enflasyon gorunumu analiz edilirken dikkate alinmasi, fiyat gelismelerinin daha saglikli yorumlanmasina katki saglayacaktir. [EN] This study provides a detailed analysis of the effect of Ramadan on food prices by combining macro price indices with high-frequency retail price data at the micro level. Findings related to macro price indices indicate that Ramadan exerts a leading, simultaneous, and delayed upward pressure on food prices. Micro-level analyses reveal that the Ramadan effect varies across product groups and market types, with price volatility increasing significantly for unprocessed food products. The results emphasize the importance of considering Ramadan not only as a seasonal factor but also as a predictable and traceable periodic risk factor in terms of food prices. In this context, taking the Ramadan effect into account when analyzing the short-term inflation outlook will contribute to a more accurate interpretation of price developments.

Date: 2026
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