An integrated Bayesian-Principal Component approach to macroeconomic resilience

Elton Beqiraj, Giovanni Di Bartolomeo (), Marco Di Pietro and Carolina Serpieri

No 194, CIMEO Working Paper Series from Centre for Investigation and Modelling of Experimental Observations (CIMEO)

Abstract: We propose a new approach to study the resilience to business cycle fluctuations of the Central Europe and Baltic macro-region. By individually estimating six open economy DSGE models within the macro-region, we identify the business-cycle-volatility drivers for each country. Then, we use the outcome of our six estimates to conduct a principal component analysis to determine structural common characteristics required to explain economic resilience in the Central Europe and Baltic macro-region.

Keywords: Financial crisis; resilience; macroeconomic performance; emerging markets; Bayesian estimations; principal component analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E02 E32 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ter:wpaper:00194

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