The Economic and Social Roots of Populist Rebellion: Support for Donald Trump in 2016

Thomas Ferguson (), Benjamin Page, Jacob Rothschild, Jie Chen and Arturo Chang
Additional contact information
Thomas Ferguson: Institute for New Economic Thinking
Benjamin Page: Northwestern University
Jacob Rothschild: Northwestern University
Jie Chen: University of Massachusetts
Arturo Chang: Northwestern University

No 83, Working Papers Series from Institute for New Economic Thinking

Abstract: This paper critically analyzes voting patterns in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Using survey data from the American National Election Survey and aggregate data on Congressional districts, it assesses the roles that economic and social factors played in Donald J. Trump’s `Populist` candidacy. It shows the hollowness of claims that economic issues played little or no role in the campaign and that social factors such as race or gender suffice to explain the outcome. While agreeing that racial resentment and sexism were important influences, the paper shows how various economic considerations helped Trump win the Republican primary and then led significant blocs of voters to shift from supporting Democrats or abstaining in 2012 to vote for him. It also presents striking evidence of the importance of political money and Senators` `reverse coattails` in the dramatic final result.

Keywords: political economy; voting; 2016 presidential election; Donald Trump; Populism; political parties; political money; international economic policy; free trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D71 D72 G38 L51 N22 P16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 71 pages
Date: 2018-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm, nep-pke and nep-pol
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:thk:wpaper:83

DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3306267

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