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New Evidence on the Portfolio Balance Approach to Currency Returns

Nevin Cavusoglu, Michael Goldberg and Josh Stillwagon ()
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Nevin Cavusoglu: James Madison University
Michael Goldberg: University of New Hampshire

No 89, Working Papers Series from Institute for New Economic Thinking

Abstract: This paper re-examines the empirical performance of the portfolio balance approach to currency returns. It considers the implications of two alternative specifications of preferences: one based on expected utility theory and the other on prospect theory. It also uses survey data to estimate models of ex-ante rather than ex-post returns. The empirical analysis relies on the co-integrated VAR framework, which is well suited for testing competing models and dealing with unit roots. Like earlier studies, we find little support for the expected utility theory model. By contrast, the prospect theory model`s predictions are largely borne out in the data, including those about sign reversals. We find the strongest support for a hybrid model that incorporates the risk factors of both portfolio balance specifications.

Keywords: International CAPM; Prospect Theory; Risk Premium; Co-integrated VAR; Survey Expectations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F31 D81 D84 G10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 40 pages
Date: 2019-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-upt
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