Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers

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202200071: Import competition and domestic transport costs

Michiel Gerritse and Andrea Caragliu

202200065: Can Communication Mitigate Strategic Delays in Investment Timing?

Ayse Gul Mermer, Sander Onderstal and Joep Sonnemans

20250042: Matrix-Valued Spatial Autoregressions with Dynamic and Robust Heterogeneous Spillovers

Yicong Lin, André Lucas and Shiqi Ye

20250041: Revisiting EWMA in High-Frequency Portfolio Optimization: A Comparative Assessment

Laura Capera Romero and Anne Opschoor

20250040: Sinking Land, Sinking Prices? Land Subsidence, Flood Risk, and Property Prices

Lukas Hofmann, Martijn Dröes and Marc Francke

20250039: Conditional Fat Tails and Scale Dynamics for Intraday Discrete Price Changes

Daan Schoemaker, André Lucas and Anne Opschoor

20250038: Efficient Information Aggregation: Optimal Structure of Signal Network

Bernd Heidergott, Frank den Hollander, Ines Lindner and Azadeh Parvaneh

20250037: Measuring and Explaining the CDS-Bond Basis Term-Structure Shape and Dynamics

Yonas Khanna, André Lucas and Norman Seeger

20250036: Improving Score-Driven Density Forecasts with an Application to Implied Volatility Surface Dynamics

Xia Zou, Yicong Lin and André Lucas

20250035: Simulation Smoothing for State Space Models: An Extremum Monte Carlo Approach

Thomas Buser

20250034: Simulation Smoothing for State Space Models: An Extremum Monte Carlo Approach

Karim Moussa

20250033: Timing is Everything: Labor Market Winners and Losers during Boom-Bust Cycles

Erik Katovich, Dominic Parker and Steven Poelhekke

20250032: Gender and Performance in Collaboration: Evidence from Random Student Teams

Max Coveney, Pilar Garcia-Gomez and Teresa Marreiros Bago d'Uva

20250031: Going the distance? A meta-analysis of the deterring effect of distance in tourism

Thomas de Graaff, Elisa Panzera and Henri L. F. de Groot

20250030: Sea Level Rise and Optimal Flood Protection under Uncertainty

Taco Prins, Frederick van der Ploeg and Ton S. van den Bremer

20250029: Clustering Extreme Value Indices in Large Panels

Chenhui Wang, Juan Juan Cai, Yicong Lin and Julia Schaumburg

20250028: Retiring the Store Flyer: Effects of Ceasing Print Store Flyers on Household Grocery Shopping Behavior

Arjen van Lin, Kristopher Keller and Jonne Guyt

20250027: Functional Location-Scale Models with Robust Observation-Driven Dynamics

Yicong Lin and André Lucas

20250025: Forecasting Atmospheric Ethane: Application to the Jungfraujoch Measurement Station

Marina Friedrich, Karim Moussa, Yuliya Shapovalova and David van der Straten

20250024: Food prices and production in the aftermath of natural disasters: the case of Peru

Francisco Blasques, Paolo Gorgi, Siem Jan Koopman and James Sampi

20250023: Giving as a self-control problem

Cristina Figueroa, Jantsje Mol, Ivan Soraperra and Joël Van der Weele

20250022: Semiparametric Estimation of Probability Weighting Functions Implicit in Option Prices

H. Peter Boswijk, Jeroen Dalderop, Roger J. A. Laeven and Niels Marijnen

20250021: On the Correlations in Linearized Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models

Karim Moussa

20250020: Labor Market Dynamics in a Highly Competitive Industry

Francesco Principe and Jan van Ours

20250019: Feedback, Confidence and Job Search Behavior

Tsegay Tekleselassie, Marc Witte, Jonas Radbruch, Lukas Hensel and Ingo E. Isphording

20250018: On Bogey Teams and Circular Triads: Psychological Factors in Team Performance

Jan van Ours

20250017: Construction of Compromise Values for Cooperative Games

Robert P. Gilles and Rene van den Brink

20250016: New rank-based tests and estimators for Common Primitive Shocks

Federico Carlini, Mirco Rubin and Pierluigi Vallarino

20250015: Non-Transitive Patterns in Sports Match Outcomes: A Profitable Anomaly

Jan van Ours

20250014: Closing the Mismatch: Encouraging Jobseekers to Reskill for Shortage Occupations

Elisabeth Leduc and Ilan Tojerow

20250013: The Role of Opinion Polls in Coordination Amongst Protest Voters: An Experimental Study

Oliver Feltham, Arthur Schram and Randolph Sloof

20250012: How the design of cartel fines affects prices: Evidence from the lab

Sindri Engilbertsson, Sander Onderstal and Leonard Treuren

20250011: Score-driven time-varying parameter models with splinebased densities

Janneke van Brummelen, Paolo Gorgi and Siem Jan Koopman

20250010: Measuring Family (Dis)Advantage: Lessons from Detailed Parental Information

Sander de Vries

20250009: Early History of Cannabis Use in Amsterdam

Jan van Ours

20250008: Lifting up the lives of extremely disadvantaged youth: The role of staying in school longer

Jan van Ours and Julie Moschion

20250007: Willingness to Compete in Dirty Competitions

Thomas Buser and Sahar Sangi

20250005: Daily Struggles, Shifting Moods: The Short-Term Dynamics of income and Depression

Nursena Aksünger, Wendy Janssens and Menno Pradhan

20250004: Copula tensor count autoregressions for modeling multidimensional integer-valued time series

Mirko Armillotta, Paolo Gorgi and André Lucas

20250003: Domain Informed Negative Sampling Strategies for Dynamic Graph Embedding in Meme Stock Related Social Networks

Yunming Hui, Inez Maria Zwetsloot, Simon Trimborn and Stevan Rudinac

20250002: Do energy-efficient homes improve residents’ health? Evidence from insurers' records

Vincent P. Roberdel, Ioulia V. Ossokina, Jos van Ommeren and Theo A. Arentze

20250001: Soft Landing and Inflation Scares

Jim Bullard, Alex Grimaud, Isabelle Salle and Gauthier Vermandel

20240082: Dynamic kernel models

Pierluigi Vallarino

20240081: Using Nudging Information to Manage Congestion and Emissions in a Road and Metro Network

Zhiyuan Liang, Vincent van den Berg, Erik Verhoef and Yacan Wang

20240080: Influential assets in Large-Scale Vector AutoRegressive Models

Kexin Zhang and Simon Trimborn

20240079: A Unifying Theory of Aging and Mortality

Valentin Flietner, Bernd Heidergott, Frank den Hollander, Ines Lindner, Azadeh Parvaneh and Holger Strulik

20240078: Spillovers from legal cooperation to non-competitive prices

Jeroen Hinloopen, Stephen Martin, Sander Onderstal and Leonard Treuren

20240077: Three-Sided Testing to Establish Practical Significance: A Tutorial

Peder Isager and Jack Fitzgerald

20240076: Power in plurality games

Rene van den Brink, Dinko Dimitrov and Agnieszka Rusinowska

20240075: Estimation of Linear models from Coarsened Observations: A Method of Moments Approach

Bernard M.S. van Praag, J. Peter Hop and William H. Greene

20240074: Asymmetric Gradualism in US Monetary Policy

Knut Are Aastveit, Jamie Cross, Francesco Furlanetto and Herman van Dijk

20240073: Land subsidence, Water management, House prices, Hedonic pricing, Climate adaptation

Yashvant R Premchand, Henri de Groot, Thomas Graaff and Eric Koomen

20240072: Modeling Common Bubbles: A Mixed Causal Non-Causal Dynamic Factor Model

Gabriele Mingoli

20240071: Corporate Legacy Debt, Inflation, and the Efficacy of Monetary Policy

Charles A.E. Goodhart, M. Udara Peiris, Dimitrios Tsomocos and Xuan Wang

20240070: Identifying the Impact of Hypothetical Stakes on Experimental Outcomes and Treatment Effects

Jack Fitzgerald

20240069: Joint extreme Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall dynamics with a single integrated tail shape parameter

Enzo D'Innocenzo, Andre Lucas, Bernd Schwaab and Xin Zhang

20240068: Time-Varying Factor Model Components for Effective Momentum Strategy

Jamie Cross, Lennart Hoogerheide and Herman van Dijk

20240067: Estimating Public Preferences on Population Health Ethics

Rory Allanson and Matthew Robson

20240066: Mitigating Estimation Risk: a Data-Driven Fusion of Experimental and Observational Data

Francisco Blasques, Paolo Gorgi, Siem Jan Koopman and Noah Stegehuis

20240065: Minority Salience and Criminal Justice Decisions

Kyra Hanemaaijer, Nadine Ketel and Olivier Marie

20240064: Greening the Economy

Steven Poelhekke

20240063: The causal component in the intergenerational transmission of income

Monique De Haan and Magnus Stubhaug

20240062: Robust Multivariate Observation-Driven Filtering for a Common Stochastic Trend: Theory and Application

Francisco Blasques, Janneke van Brummelen, Paolo Gorgi and Siem Jan Koopman

20240061: Enhancing Regional Resilience for Energy Price Shocks: Efficient Gas Use and Upstream Decarbonization

Sacha den Nijs and Mark Thissen

20240060: PyTimeVar: A Python Package for Trending Time-Varying Time Series Models

Mingxuan Song, Bernhard van der Sluis and Yicong Lin

20240059: Realized Variances vs. Correlations: Unlocking the Gains in Multivariate Volatility Forecasting

Laura Capera Romero and Anne Opschoor

20240058: Poverty and Uncertainty Attitudes

Víctor González-Jiménez

20240057: High temperatures and workplace injuries

Matteo Picchio and Jan C. van Ours

20240056: Flexible Negative Binomial Mixtures for Credible Mode Inference in Heterogeneous Count Data from Finance, Economics and Bioinformatics

Jamie Cross, Lennart Hoogerheide, Paul Labonne and Herman van Dijk

20240055: Non-Compete Agreements, Tacit Knowledge and Market Imperfections

Eric Bartelsman, Sabien Dobbelaere and Alessandro Zona Mattioli

20240054: Competitive search with private information: Can price signal quality?

James Albrecht, Xiaoming Cai, Pieter Gautier and Susan Vroman

20240053: The Chinese waste import ban and the emergence of waste havens within Europe

Konstantin Sommer

20240052: Testing for Clustering Under Switching

Igor Custodio João

20240051: Kullback-Leibler-based characterizations of score-driven updates

Ramon Punder, Timo Dimitriadis and Rutger-Jan Lange

20240050: On Bubbles in Cryptocurrency Prices

Maarten van Oordt

20240049: Density Forecasting for Electricity Prices under Tail Heterogeneity with the t-Riesz Distribution

Anne Opschoor, Dewi Peerlings, Luca Rossini and Andre Lucas

20240048: Bargaining Power and Quantity Discounts to Retailers: Evidence from India’s Pharmaceutical Industry

Gianluca Antonecchia, Ajay Bhaskarabhatla and Enrico Pennings

20240047: The persistence and nature of the labor reallocation shock during the COVID-19 crisis

Mathieu Steijn

20240046: Price elasticities of meat, fish and plant-based meat substitutes: evidence from store-level Dutch supermarket scanner data

Zhaoxin Liu and Erik Ansink

20240045: Responsibility-Sensitive Welfare Weights for Health

Matthew Robson, Owen O’Donnell and Tom Van Ourti

20240044: Incentives matter sometimes: On the differences between league and Cup football matches

Jan C. van Ours and Martin van Tuijl

20240043: The effects of mental health interventions on labor market outcomes in low- and middle- income countries

Crick Lund, Kate Orkin, Marc Witte, John Walker, Thandi Davies, Johannes Haushofer, Sarah Murray, Judy Bass, Laura Murray, Wietse Tol and Vikram Patel

20240042: Wages and employment in the Netherlands, 2017-2023

Iris Klinker and Bas ter Weel

20240041: Holi Crimes

Claudia Martínez V. and Rubén Poblete-Cazenave

20240040: From Two Heads to One: The Short-Run Effects of the Recentralization of Political Power in Rural China

Olivier Marie, Thomas Post, Zihan Ye and Xiaopeng Zou

20240039: Striking Out: Biases and Losses of Retail Option Traders

Aleksi Pitkäjärvi and Matteo Vacca

20240038: Repeated games with partner choice

Christopher Graser, Takako Fujiwara-Greve, Julian García and Matthijs van Veelen

20240037: Statistical Early Warning Models with Applications

Lucas P. Harlaar, Jacques J.F. Commandeur, Jan A. van den Brakel, Siem Jan Koopman, Niels Bos and Frits D. Bijleveld

20240036: A Novel Test for the Presence of Local Explosive Dynamics

F. Blasques, Siem Jan Koopman, G. Mingoli and Sean Telg

20240035: Towards fully decentralized environmental regulation

Jens Gudmundsson, Jens Leth Hougaard and Erik Ansink

20240034: The Generalized Price Equation

Matthijs van Veelen

20240033: The generalized version of Hamilton’s rule

Matthijs van Veelen

20240032: Human-driven vehicles’ cruising versus autonomous vehicles’ back- and-forth congestion: The effects on traveling, parking and congestion

Xiaojuan Yu and Vincent van den Berg

20240031: Non-Transitive Patterns in Long-Term Football Rivalries

Jan C. van Ours

20240030: Taylor Rules with Endogenous Regimes

Knut Are Aastveit, Jamie Cross, Francesco Furlanetto and Herman van Dijk

20240029: Seeking or ignoring ethical certifications in consumer choice

Dianna R. Amasino, Suzanne Oosterwijk, Nicolette J. Sullivan and Joël van der Weele

20240028: Skipping your workout, again? Measuring and understanding time inconsistency in physical activity

Diarmaid Ó Ceallaigh, Kirsten I.M. Rohde and Hans van Kippersluis

20240027: Estimating the Lifecycle Fertility Consequences of WWII Using Bunching

Esmee Zwiers

20240026: Home Improvement, Wealth Inequality, and the Energy-Efficiency Paradox

Martijn I. Dröes and Yasmine Van Der Straten

20240025: Preference heterogeneity in a dynamic flow congestion model

Xiaojuan Yu, Vincent van den Berg and Erik Verhoef