Forecasting Volatility and Spillovers in Crude Oil Spot, Forward and Futures Markets

Chia-Lin Chang (changchialin@email.nchu.edu.tw), Michael McAleer and Roengchai Tansuchat (roengchaitan@gmail.com)

No CIRJE-F-641, CIRJE F-Series from CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo

Abstract: Crude oil price volatility has been analyzed extensively for organized spot, forward and futures markets for well over a decade, and is crucial for forecasting volatility and Value-at- Risk (VaR). There are four major benchmarks in the international oil market, namely West Texas Intermediate (USA), Brent (North Sea), Dubai/Oman (Middle East), and Tapis (Asia- Pacific), which are likely to be highly correlated. This paper analyses the volatility spillover effects across and within the four markets, using three multivariate GARCH models, namely the CCC, VARMA-GARCH and VARMA-AGARCH models. A rolling window approach is used to forecast the 1-day ahead conditional correlations. The paper presents evidence of volatility spillovers and asymmetric effects on the conditional variances for most pairs of series. In addition, the forecasted conditional correlations between pairs of crude oil returns have both positive and negative trends.

Pages: 24 pages
Date: 2009-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene, nep-fmk, nep-for and nep-sea
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http://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/dp/2009/2009cf641.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Forecasting Volatility and Spillovers in Crude Oil Spot, Forward and Futures Markets (2009)
Working Paper: Forecasting volatility and spillovers in crude oil spot, forward and future markets (2009)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:tky:fseres:2009cf641

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