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An Econometric Analysis of SARS and Avian Flu on International Tourist Arrivals to Asia

Michael McAleer, Bing-Wen Huang, Hsiao-I Kuo, Chi-Chung Chen and Chia-Lin Chang
Additional contact information
Bing-Wen Huang: Department of Applied Economics, National Chung Hsing University
Hsiao-I Kuo: Department of Senior Citizen Service Management, Chaoyang University of Technology
Chi-Chung Chen: Department of Applied Economics, National Chung Hsing University

No CIRJE-F-649, CIRJE F-Series from CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo

Abstract: This paper compares the impacts of SARS and human deaths arising from Avian Flu on international tourist arrivals to Asia. The effects of SARS and human deaths from Avian Flu will be compared directly according to human deaths. The nature of the short run and long run relationship is examined empirically by estimating a static line fixed effect model and a difference transformation dynamic model, respectively. Empirical results from the static fixed effect and difference transformation dynamic models are consistent, and indicate that both the short run and long run SARS effect have a more significant impact on international tourist arrivals than does Avian Flu. In addition, the effects of deaths arising from both SARS and Avian Flu suggest that SARS is more important to international tourist arrivals than is Avian Flu. Thus, while Avian Flu is here to stay, its effect is currently not as significant as that of SARS.

Pages: 29 pages
Date: 2009-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-sea and nep-tur
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Working Paper: An econometric analysis of SARS and Avian flu on international tourist arrivals to Asia (2008) Downloads
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