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Modelling Sustainable International Tourism Demand to the Brazilian Amazon

Jose Angelo Divino and Michael McAleer

No CIRJE-F-650, CIRJE F-Series from CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo

Abstract: The Amazon rainforest is one of the world's greatest natural wonders and holds great importance and significance for the world's environmental balance. Around 60% of the Amazon rainforest is located in the Brazilian territory. The two biggest states of the Amazon region are Amazonas (the upper Amazon) and Para (the lower Amazon), which together account for around 73% of the Brazilian Legal Amazon, and are the only states that are serviced by international airports in Brazil's North region. The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast sustainable international tourism demand for the states of Amazonas, Para, and the aggregate of the two states. By sustainable tourism is meant a distinctive type of tourism that has relatively low environmental and cultural impacts. Economic progress brought about by illegal wood extraction and commercial agriculture has destroyed large areas of the Amazon rainforest. The sustainable tourism industry has the potential to contribute to the economic development of the Amazon region without destroying the rainforest. The paper presents unit root tests for monthly and annual data, estimates alternative time series models and conditional volatility models of the shocks to international tourist arrivals, and provides forecasts for 2006 and 2007.

Pages: 35 pages
Date: 2009-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cul, nep-env, nep-for and nep-tur
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (13)

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http://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/dp/2009/2009cf650.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Modelling Sustainable International Tourism Demand to the Brazilian Amazon (2009) Downloads
Working Paper: Modelling sustainable international tourism demand to the Brazilian Amazon (2008) Downloads
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