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Modelling and Forecasting Daily International Mass Tourism to Peru

Jose Angelo Divino and Michael McAleer

No CIRJE-F-651, CIRJE F-Series from CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo

Abstract: Peru is a South American country that is divided into two parts by the Andes Mountains. The rich historical, cultural and geographic diversity has led to the inclusion of ten Peruvian sites on UNESCO's World Heritage List. For the potentially negative impacts of mass tourism on the environment, and hence on future international tourism demand, to be managed appropriately require modelling growth rates and volatility adequately. The paper models the growth rate and volatility (or the variability in the growth rate) in daily international tourist arrivals to Peru from 1997 to 2007. The empirical results show that international tourist arrivals and their growth rates are stationary, and that the estimated symmetric and asymmetric conditional volatility models all fit the data extremely well. Moreover, the estimates resemble those arising from financial time series data, with both short and long run persistence of shocks to the growth rate in international tourist arrivals.

Pages: 34 pages
Date: 2009-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cul, nep-for and nep-tur
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (19)

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Journal Article: Modelling and forecasting daily international mass tourism to Peru (2010) Downloads
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