Time Series Modelling of Tourism Demand from the USA, Japan and Malaysia to Thailand

Yaovarate Chaovanapoonphol, Christine Lim, Michael McAleer and Aree Wiboonpongse
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Yaovarate Chaovanapoonphol: Faculty of Agriculture, Chiang Mai University
Aree Wiboonpongse: Faculty of Agriculture, Chiang Mai University

No CIRJE-F-722, CIRJE F-Series from CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo

Abstract: Even though tourism has been recognized as one of the key sectors for the Thai economy, international tourism demand, or tourist arrivals, to Thailand have recently experienced dramatic fluctuations. The purpose of the paper is to investigate the relationship between the demand for international tourism to Thailand and its major determinants. The paper includes arrivals from the USA, which represents the long haul inbound market, from Japan as the most important medium haul inbound market, and from Malaysia as the most important short haul inbound market. The time series of tourist arrivals and economic determinants from 1971 to 2005 are examined using ARIMA with exogenous variables (ARMAX) models to analyze the relationships between tourist arrivals from these countries to Thailand. The economic determinants and ARMA are used to predict the effects of the economic, financial and political determinants on the numbers of tourists to Thailand.

Pages: 16pages
Date: 2010-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-sea and nep-tur
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http://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/dp/2010/2010cf722.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Time Series Modelling of Tourism Demand from the USA, Japan and Malaysia to Thailand (2010)
Working Paper: Time Series Modelling of Tourism Demand from the USA, Japan and Malaysia to Thailand (2010)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:tky:fseres:2010cf722

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