Realized stochastic volatility with leverage and long memory

Shinichiro Shirota, Takayuki Hizu and Yasuhiro Omori ()
Additional contact information
Shinichiro Shirota: Graduate School of Economics, University of Tokyo
Takayuki Hizu: Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking

No CIRJE-F-869, CIRJE F-Series from CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo

Abstract: The daily return and the realized volatility are simultaneously modeled in the stochastic volatility model with leverage and long memory. The dependent variable in the stochastic volatility model is the logarithm of the squared return, and its error distribution is approximated by a mixture of normals. In addition, we incorporate the logarithm of the realized volatility into the measurement equation, assuming that the latent log volatility follows an Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) process to describe its long memory property. Using a state space representation, we propose an ecient Bayesian estimation method implemented using Markov chain Monte Carlo method (MCMC). Model comparisons are performed based on the marginal likelihood, and the volatility forecasting performances are investigated using S&P500 stock index returns.

Pages: 35 pages
Date: 2012-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm, nep-ets and nep-rmg
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/dp/2012/2012cf869.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Realized stochastic volatility with leverage and long memory (2014)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:tky:fseres:2012cf869

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CIRJE F-Series from CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by CIRJE administrative office ().