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Abenomics: Why Was It So Successful in Changing Market Expectations?

Shin-ichi Fukuda ()

No CIRJE-F-969, CIRJE F-Series from CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo

Abstract: ‘Abenomics' refers to a new unconventional economic policy regime in Japan since late 2012. It consists of the three arrows: unconventional monetary policy (the first arrow), expansionary fiscal policy (the second arrow), and economic growth strategies to encourage private investment (the third arrow). After the new regime started, both the stock market and the foreign exchange market reacted very favorably. The purpose of this paper is to investigate why the markets reacted to the new regime so favorably. Unlike orthodox arguments, we focus on asymmetric behavior between local and foreign investors after December 2012. We show that under the new regime, foreign investors were aggressive in purchasing Japanese stocks and in selling the Japanese yen, while local investors were not. By using high frequency intra-daily data, both structural break tests and regression analysis show that various news shocks had more significant impacts on the stock prices and exchange rates in nighttime than in daytime even if they were revealed in daytime. Noting that local investors tend to trade in daytime, while foreign investors tend to trade in nighttime, this implies that the dramatic market responses to the new regime happened only in time zones when foreign investors were active. However, the asymmetry might have been less significant after the market crash on May 23, 2013. --

Date: 2015-03
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