Equilibrium Multi-Agent Model with Heterogeneous Views on Fundamental Risks

Keisuke Kizaki, Taiga Saito and Akihiko Takahashi
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Keisuke Kizaki: Graduate School of Economics, The University of Tokyo
Taiga Saito: Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo
Akihiko Takahashi: Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo

No CIRJE-F-1173, CIRJE F-Series from CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo

Abstract: This paper investigates an equilibrium-based multi-agent optimal consumption and portfolio problem incorporating uncertainties on fundamental risks, where multiple agents have heterogeneous (conservative, neutral, aggressive) views on the risks represented by Brownian motions. Each agent maximizes its expected utility on consumption under its subjective probability measure. Specifically, we formulate the individual optimization problem as a sup-sup-inf problem, which is an optimal consumption and portfolio problem with a choice of a probability measure. Moreover, we provide an expression of the state-price density process in a market equilibrium, which derives the representations of the interest rate and the market price of risk. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to investigate the multi-agent model with heterogeneous views on the risks by considering a market equilibrium and solving sup-sup-inf problems on the choice of a probability measure. We emphasize that the setting, where each agent has heterogeneous views on different risks, incorporates a special case where each agent has only conservative or neutral views on risks with different degrees of conservativeness. Also, the setting includes the case where the agents have aggressive views on risks, commonly observed as bullish sentiments in the dinancial markets in the monetary easing after the global financial crisis and particularly in the COVID-19 pandemic. Finally, we present numerical examples of the interest rate model, which show how heterogeneous views of the multiple agents on the risks affect the shape of the yield curve.

Pages: 51 pages
Date: 2021-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-upt
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